Tech Mahindra Q3 Preview: Profit Set to Climb Despite One-Time Labour Code Charges
Tech Mahindra is projected to deliver strong Q3 performance with 40% YoY profit growth and 7% revenue increase, according to brokerage estimates. Sequential revenue growth is expected at 0.4-0.7% in constant currency, driven by BFSI, communications, and enterprise segments. Margin expansion of 40-60 basis points is anticipated through cost optimization and operational efficiencies. Deal wins are projected between ₹4,980-7,470 crores, with focus on telecom vertical recovery and European market traction.

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Tech Mahindra is expected to report steady revenue performance along with improved profitability in the December quarter, supported by margin expansion and cost optimization measures. According to average estimates from six brokerages, the company's revenue is projected to rise by around 7.00% year-on-year in Q3, while profit after tax is likely to jump approximately 40.00% year-on-year.
The estimated profit growth does not account for any potential impact from labour code-related provisions. However, given the strong scale of growth projected by brokerages, Tech Mahindra is likely to report profit expansion, setting it apart from many of its larger IT peers.
Revenue Outlook: Modest Growth Led by Enterprise Traction
Most brokerages anticipate that Tech Mahindra's revenue growth will remain modest on a sequential basis, pointing to a slow and steady recovery rather than a sharp bounce-back. The following table summarizes brokerage projections for sequential growth:
| Brokerage: | Sequential Growth Projection | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| HSBC: | 0.50% QoQ (dollar revenue) | 30 basis point currency headwind |
| Nomura: | 0.40-0.50% (constant currency) | BFSI, communications, enterprise momentum |
| Centrum Broking: | 0.40-0.50% (constant currency) | Improving segment performance |
| Nuvama: | 0.70% (constant currency) | Retail performance, telecom, manufacturing |
| Kotak Equities: | 0.50% (constant currency) | Retail, Comviva business, vertical stabilization |
Nomura and Centrum Broking project sequential growth of around 0.40-0.50% in constant currency terms, supported by improving momentum in BFSI, communications, and enterprise segments. Nuvama is relatively more upbeat, forecasting constant currency growth of approximately 0.70% quarter-on-quarter, aided by seasonally stronger retail performance and incremental contributions from telecom and manufacturing.
Margins: Expansion Remains the Key Theme
Margin expansion remains the key focus for investors this quarter. Most brokerages expect Tech Mahindra to deliver notable sequential improvement in EBIT margins, driven by cost optimization measures, operational efficiencies, and a favourable currency environment.
| Brokerage: | Margin Expansion Projection | Supporting Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Centrum Broking: | 45 basis points QoQ | Margin improvement programme, rupee depreciation |
| Nomura: | Up to 60 basis points | Cost rationalization, better contract mix |
| Kotak Equities: | Up to 60 basis points | Continued cost optimization |
| Nuvama: | 40 basis points | FY27 margin guidance alignment |
Nuvama estimates margins to improve by about 40.00 basis points and expects Tech Mahindra to stay on track with its FY27 margin guidance of 15.00%. HSBC believes margin performance will remain aligned with the company's stated FY27 targets, underscoring confidence in management's execution on profitability.
Deal Wins and Pipeline
Deal momentum will be another critical area to monitor. Nomura expects net new deal wins in the range of ₹4,980-6,640 crores for the quarter, while Kotak Equities estimates a higher ₹7,263-7,470 crores, implying strong sequential and year-on-year growth. Kotak notes that newer deals are likely to be higher margin, which could further support profitability in the coming quarters.
Management commentary on the deal pipeline, conversion timelines and traction in Europe is expected to be closely tracked, especially amid a still-cautious global demand environment.
Key Areas for Investor Focus
Brokerage firms expect communications and enterprise verticals to drive near-term growth, with BFSI also showing early signs of improvement. However, commentary on the telecom vertical remains crucial, given its historical importance to Tech Mahindra's revenue mix.
Investors will also look for updates on recovery in the hi-tech and manufacturing sectors that have seen pressure over recent quarters. The company's ability to maintain its margin expansion trajectory while navigating potential labour code provisions will be closely monitored by market participants.
Historical Stock Returns for Mahindra & Mahindra
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.33% | -3.60% | -0.82% | +18.75% | +21.66% | +340.57% |
















































