ICICI Bank Q3 Preview: PAT Growth Seen Up to 7.5% YoY, NII Likely to Rise 6-8%
ICICI Bank's Q3FY26 results preview shows analyst expectations of PAT between ₹11,946-12,641 crore with 1-7.2% YoY growth. NII is projected to grow 6-8% YoY driven by healthy retail and SME loan expansion, while NIMs expected to remain stable at 4.3%. PPOP estimates range ₹17,253-18,155 crore with 4-7.5% YoY growth. Key focus areas include asset quality, credit costs around 0.5%, and commentary on digital lending and unsecured loan exposure.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
ICICI Bank is scheduled to announce its Q3FY26 results with analysts anticipating steady performance supported by healthy loan growth in retail and SME segments. The bank delivered stable numbers in the September quarter, and investors will closely track key profitability metrics amid the changing interest rate environment. Focus remains on net interest income, net interest margin, and asset quality, along with updates on fee income, provisioning trends, and unsecured loan exposure commentary.
Profit After Tax Projections
Broker estimates suggest ICICI Bank may post net profit between ₹11,946.00 crore and ₹12,641.00 crore, indicating YoY growth of 1-7.2% with QoQ movement largely flat to slightly negative.
| Brokerage | PAT Estimate (₹ Cr) | YoY Growth | QoQ Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kotak Institutional Equities | 12,523.00 | +6.00% | +1.00% |
| JM Financial | 11,946.00 | +1.30% | -3.30% |
| IIFL Capital | 12,000.00 | +1.00% | -3.00% |
| Emkay Global | 12,641.00 | +7.20% | +2.30% |
| Elara Capital | 12,366.00 | +4.90% | Flat |
Most brokerages expect stable asset quality to support profitability, even as seasonally higher agricultural slippages and modest margin compression could impact the bottom line.
Net Interest Income Growth
NII is estimated between ₹21,622.00-22,073.00 crore, with growth expected to remain healthy driven by double-digit loan book expansion. Estimates suggest 6-8% YoY growth with sequential expansion of 0-2.5%.
| Brokerage | NII Estimate (₹ Cr) | YoY Growth | QoQ Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kotak Institutional Equities | 21,622.00 | +6.00% | Flat |
| JM Financial | 21,649.00 | +6.30% | +0.60% |
| IIFL Capital | 22,000.00 | +8.00% | +2.00% |
| Emkay Global | 22,030.00 | +8.10% | +2.30% |
| Elara Capital | 21,972.00 | +7.90% | +2.10% |
The consistent NII growth reflects healthy credit momentum, particularly in retail and SME segments.
Margin and Operating Metrics
Net Interest Margins are expected to remain flat QoQ and rangebound at 4.30%. Emkay Global projects NIMs to hold steady around 4.30% with a slight sequential uptick of 1 basis point and YoY improvement of 6 basis points. The stability in margins is viewed positively given continued deposit repricing pressure in the system.
Pre-Provision Operating Profit estimates range from ₹17,253.00-18,155.00 crore, reflecting YoY growth of 4-7.5% and QoQ growth of 1-5%.
| Brokerage | PPOP Estimate (₹ Cr) | YoY Growth | QoQ Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kotak Equities | 17,515.00 | +4.00% | +1.00% |
| JM Financial | 17,588.00 | +4.20% | +1.70% |
| IIFL | 17,300.00 | +5.00% | +2.00% |
| Emkay Global | 18,156.00 | +7.50% | +5.00% |
| Elara Capital | 17,725.00 | +5.00% | +2.50% |
Key Focus Areas
Analysts will monitor credit costs, with JM Financial expecting levels around 0.50%. Within private bank coverage, Emkay Global anticipates ICICI Bank to report better credit growth momentum. Key areas of interest include:
- Credit card and digital lending portfolio performance
- Commentary on unsecured loan exposure
- Early insights into FY27 growth strategy
- Asset quality trends, particularly agricultural slippages
The Q3 earnings outcome may provide fresh triggers for rerating or consolidation as investors assess the bank's positioning amid evolving market conditions.
Historical Stock Returns for ICICI Bank
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.64% | -1.29% | +3.17% | -0.96% | +13.63% | +154.71% |
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