Leading cryptocurrencies declined alongside stocks on Monday after President Donald Trump proposed full U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz and a reimbursement fee on all cargo passing through. The market downturn resulted in over $360 million in liquidations, predominantly from bullish long positions, according to Coinglass data. Bitcoin fell below $62,000 as trading volume doubled over the last 24 hours to $37.15 billion, while Ethereum experienced high volatility, fluctuating between a low of $1,749.35 and a high of $1,812.94.

Market Performance

The following table details the performance of major cryptocurrencies at 9:15 p.m. EDT:

Bitcoin’s open interest rose 2.24% over the last 24 hours. An increase in open interest combined with a price decrease indicates a short build-up, meaning new traders are actively shorting the asset. "Extreme Fear" sentiment prevailed in the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Stock Market Impact

Stocks ended in the red on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 138.37 points, or 0.26%, to close at 52,498.64. The S&P 500 lost 0.79% to end at 7,515.34, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.55% to finish at 25,873.18. Cryptocurrency-related stocks also fell, with Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (NYSE: BMNR) closing down 2.68% and 2.47%, respectively.

Geopolitical Tensions

Tensions worsened after Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that the U.S. is considering taking control of the critical oil shipping point permanently in exchange for a 20% fee on cargo. This development contributed to the broader risk-off sentiment observed in both equity and cryptocurrency markets.

Whale Accumulation

Despite the price dip, Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score has stayed near 1 since June. "A reading near 1 suggests that whales—or a large share of the network—are actively accumulating Bitcoin," the analyst noted. On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that the top 100 Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) holders control 0.6% less of the supply than three months ago, while the top 100 USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) holders are down 4.7%. "A healthier distribution of USDT and USDC can make crypto markets more resilient," Santiment added.

Bitcoin is approaching a critical support level near $58,000 that has historically caught every major bottom since 2015, according to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $62,700, closing in on this lower boundary defined by a power law model. Timmer notes that the gap between Bitcoin’s price and the model’s midline has swung to negative 56%, a depth previously observed during the 2018 and 2022 cycle lows. Veteran macro investor Jordi Visser suggests the recent weakness may be part of a bottom formation, citing the first bullish RSI divergence since the market peak. Crypto analyst Kevin Svenson echoed this sentiment, arguing that Bitcoin may be entering the final stages of its bear market as higher-timeframe technical indicators increasingly point towards a long-term bottom.

Technical Indicators Signal Weakness

Timmer’s model plots Bitcoin’s price history on a logarithmic chart bounded by three curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trendline, and the lower support line. A secondary indicator measuring the distance from the midline confirms the current negative 56% deviation. Additionally, the 52-week Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to around negative 100%. Despite these metrics, Timmer is not calling a bottom, suggesting that Bitcoin could linger near the support line for months before reversing. Visser noted that while another move toward $50,000 or even $45,000 cannot be ruled out, Bitcoin is likely to trade above $100,000 within a year. Kevin Svenson highlighted that BTC is now showing multiple bullish signals on higher timeframes, including the weekly and two-week charts, such as technical bullish divergences and trading near its 12-day 200 EMA and 200 SMA—areas that have historically coincided with major cycle lows.

Capital Rotation and ETF Flows

The speculative premium that drove Bitcoin past $120,000 last year has largely evaporated, with global money supply growth slowing. Capital has rotated out of Bitcoin into gold and subsequently into semiconductors. Visser argued that Bitcoin has lagged over the past year as capital rotated aggressively into AI infrastructure plays, but he expects this rotation to normalize. However, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $197 million in inflows for the week ending July 10, marking the first positive week after eight consecutive weeks of outflows. This return of institutional demand is significant as ETF buying involves real spot Bitcoin.

Macro Catalysts and Resistance

Visser pointed to the July 29 FOMC meeting as a key catalyst, estimating there is a 35%-40% chance of a rate hike. He believes if the Fed leaves rates unchanged, Bitcoin could rally above $70,000 as markets begin pricing in a less restrictive policy path. Bitcoin recently experienced a 1.5% pullback attributed to reignited tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Technical resistance remains a hurdle, as the price broke down from its major rising channel in June. The lower boundary of that channel has flipped from support to resistance. The death cross from November 2025 remains intact, with the 50-day SMA at $64,589 and the 200-day SMA at $73,747 acting as overhead supply. Maintaining the $58,000 to $60,000 demand zone is crucial for the Fidelity accumulation thesis to remain valid.