Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified a buying opportunity for Strategy Inc. and Bitcoin, citing depressed valuation metrics reminiscent of the 2022 bear market bottom. The analyst highlighted that Strategy’s Market Net Asset Value (mNAV) is currently in the bottom 1% of historical readings, suggesting the stock is trading at a significant discount to its Bitcoin holdings. Market Net Asset Value is calculated by dividing Strategy’s Enterprise Value by the total market value of the Bitcoin it holds, tracking whether investors pay a premium or a discount for the treasury.

Van de Poppe noted that while Strategy’s share price has fallen, it has not reached the depths seen in 2022, arguing that the company has strengthened its position since then. He interprets the current setup as temporary, suggesting the market may be nearing a bottom for Bitcoin. This outlook contrasts with recent criticism regarding Strategy’s shift from being a buyer to a seller of Bitcoin to fund operations, a move that has pressured investor sentiment and challenged the company’s previous “never sell” thesis.

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, posted a chart on X featuring orange circles to pinpoint the firm’s Bitcoin purchases, stating that “orange dots tell only part of the story.” Historically, these weekend posts have preceded purchase disclosures on the following Monday, hinting at potential accumulation. The analyst comments and Saylor’s post come as Strategy sits on unrealized losses worth over $10 billion on its Bitcoin holdings.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was exchanging hands at $62,698.35, down 1.96% over the last 24 hours. Strategy shares closed 0.80% higher at $94.64 on Friday. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MSTR has underperformed with a weaker price trend across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.

Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi has a straightforward message for crypto investors: holding Bitcoin through every downturn is the only strategy that has consistently delivered results. Speaking on the When Shift Happens podcast in July, Qureshi reflected on his own entry into the industry and the lessons drawn from years of market cycles—arguing that most investors fail not because of bad timing, but because they abandon "the obvious thing."

Staying in the Market: The Only Strategy That Has Worked

Qureshi entered the crypto industry in late 2017 and witnessed Bitcoin fall from $19,000 to $4,000, with Ethereum dropping below $100. He described 2018 as potentially worse than the post-FTX period, noting that in 2018, there was no single party to blame for the collapse—making it psychologically harder to endure.

"There are so many people I know who came into crypto at the same time I did and didn't make money," Qureshi said. "The answer is very simple. You just didn't do the obvious thing, which is stay in the market."

He pointed to venture capital as a structural model that enforces this discipline—limited partners are locked up and unable to sell even when they want to, which he said partly explains why the asset class performs.

Institutional Adoption Remains in Early Stages

Qureshi highlighted that most of Dragonfly's institutional limited partners hold less than 1% of their portfolios in crypto. He cited Morgan Stanley only recently beginning to recommend digital assets to high-net-worth clients, and Vanguard approving BlackRock's IBIT as markers of how early institutional participation remains.

On the regulatory front, he noted that the biggest predictor of who voted for the FIT 21 crypto bill in the House was age, not party affiliation—with younger Congress members voting yes and older ones voting no. Qureshi drew a parallel between crypto adoption and the generational curve that characterised the shift to cloud computing.

Bitcoin's Volatility Reflects Its Unfinished Transition

Addressing critics who argue Bitcoin should trade like gold during periods of macro stress, Qureshi said the comparison misunderstands Bitcoin's current status. He described Bitcoin as a bet on something that may become like gold, not something that already is.

His reasoning: if the market believes Bitcoin reaches saturation in 10 years, it prices accordingly. If expectations shift to 15 years, the asset gets marked down sharply even if the terminal value stays the same. He offered a rough saturation price range of well above $100,000, and probably below $1 million.

Ethereum and Solana: Growth Regime, Not Revenue Regime

Qureshi pushed back on analysts applying a cash flow framework to Ethereum and Solana, arguing it is the wrong lens for assets in a growth phase. He noted that Ethereum barely moves when fees increase—its price responds to growth expectations, much the way Tesla trades on robotics and autonomous vehicle potential rather than current earnings.

Crypto Enters a Buildout Phase as AI Draws Frontier Talent

On the trend of crypto talent migrating to artificial intelligence, Qureshi said the shift is healthy rather than alarming. He described crypto as now entering a buildout phase—executing on proven infrastructure rather than pioneering new concepts. Drawing a comparison to social media, he noted that the sector went 20 to 30x between 2010 and today without a single major new idea after 2010, suggesting crypto's next phase of gains does not require a return to its earlier, more chaotic period.