Standard Chartered has maintained its $100,000 year-end 2026 price target for Bitcoin, arguing that recent market weakness is mainly tied to Strategy Inc. reflects a messaging problem rather than any deterioration in the company's financial position. In a research note on Friday, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, described the situation at Strategy as a communication challenge. He argued that investors are adjusting to Strategy’s shift away from its long-standing "never sell Bitcoin" philosophy toward using Bitcoin as collateral to support its growing preferred stock business.

Strategy currently holds 843,775 BTC, representing more than 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum 21 million supply. Kendrick noted that Strategy’s previous model relied on its stock trading at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, allowing it to issue equity, purchase more Bitcoin and grow shareholder value. With that premium now largely gone, the company is repositioning Bitcoin as collateral backing STRC, its perpetual preferred stock that currently pays a 12% annual dividend.

The security has roughly $10 billion outstanding, making it Strategy’s largest financing vehicle. Concerns intensified after STRC fell well below its $100 par value, touching an intraday low of $71.25 in late June following Strategy’s disclosure that it had sold 32 BTC. Although Strategy has since expanded its U.S. dollar reserve to $2.55 billion, representing about 17.4 months of dividend coverage, STRC continues to trade near $90.

Kendrick believes stronger communication around Strategy’s monetization framework would restore confidence and reduce the need for future Bitcoin sales altogether. He compared the approach to a central bank pledging to do "whatever it takes," where credibility itself minimizes intervention.

Passage of the CLARITY Act is moving into its next phase, but prediction markets remain skeptical about the bill’s chances in 2026. Lawmakers are racing against the congressional calendar to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before its chances fade ahead of the 2026 midterm election season. Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee staff have merged their respective versions of the Clarity Act into a single draft. The revised legislation reportedly adds more than 70 pages of new language and incorporates changes negotiated by members of both committees, emphasizing largely on consumer protections.

Bill Could Reach Senate Floor By July 20

Supporters hope the bill could reach the Senate floor during the week of July 20, though negotiators acknowledge several major issues remain unresolved. A modest boost came in after Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) backed the bill’s Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) provisions this week. It would protect blockchain developers from being regulated as money transmitters when they do not custody customer assets.

Ethics Provision Remains Biggest Hurdle

The largest sticking point continues to be Democratic demands for stronger ethics restrictions preventing senior government officials, including the president, from maintaining business ties with the cryptocurrency industry while in office. Lawmakers are also negotiating federal preemption of state crypto regulations and the division of oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The White House has not yet endorsed the merged draft and has not participated in the latest round of negotiations.

Prediction Markets Turn More Cautious

Polymarket currently assigns roughly a 40% probability that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026, a sharp decline from about 74% in early May, when the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance its version of the legislation. The drop reflects growing uncertainty as bipartisan negotiations continue and the legislative calendar tightens.