Passage of the CLARITY Act is moving into its next phase, but prediction markets remain skeptical about the bill’s chances in 2026. Lawmakers are racing against the congressional calendar to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before its chances fade ahead of the 2026 midterm election season. Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee staff have merged their respective versions of the Clarity Act into a single draft. The revised legislation reportedly adds more than 70 pages of new language and incorporates changes negotiated by members of both committees, emphasizing largely on consumer protections.

Bill Could Reach Senate Floor By July 20

Supporters hope the bill could reach the Senate floor during the week of July 20, though negotiators acknowledge several major issues remain unresolved. A modest boost came in after Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) backed the bill’s Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) provisions this week. It would protect blockchain developers from being regulated as money transmitters when they do not custody customer assets.

Ethics Provision Remains Biggest Hurdle

The largest sticking point continues to be Democratic demands for stronger ethics restrictions preventing senior government officials, including the president, from maintaining business ties with the cryptocurrency industry while in office. Lawmakers are also negotiating federal preemption of state crypto regulations and the division of oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The White House has not yet endorsed the merged draft and has not participated in the latest round of negotiations.

Prediction Markets Turn More Cautious

Polymarket currently assigns roughly a 40% probability that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026, a sharp decline from about 74% in early May, when the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance its version of the legislation. The drop reflects growing uncertainty as bipartisan negotiations continue and the legislative calendar tightens.

Real estate investor Grant Cardone predicts that Bitcoin could eventually become part of the collateral stack for property deals, arguing that lenders may one day value both real estate and Bitcoin when underwriting loans. He believes this hybrid approach addresses capital expenditure challenges in the real estate sector and could disrupt the $4 trillion REIT industry.

Fund Allocation and Lender Perception

In a conversation with 10X Money Talks, Cardone disclosed that his latest real estate fund included $105 million in Bitcoin, alongside $95 million in real estate equity and $140 million in debt. He stated that lenders currently give him no credit for the Bitcoin sitting in the fund’s treasury, treating it separately from the real estate collateral.

Cardone expressed optimism that future lending practices would evolve. "I believe in the future Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to lend me money against the combination," he added. "Not just the real estate."

Hybrid Deal Execution and Strategy

Cardone revealed that his firm has completed six hybrid deals totaling more than $1 billion, with about $200 million in BTC purchased without leverage. He described the model as one that institutions may adopt in the future to solve specific problems within real estate financing.

Regarding the management of the digital asset, Cardone said he prefers keeping Bitcoin with a qualified custodian rather than using complex derivative strategies. He argued that the best approach is to "buy it, sit on it, hold it for a long period of time."

Bitcoin Treasury Companies

The discussion also touched on Bitcoin treasury companies such as ProCap and Nakamoto, which were described as trading at steep discounts to their underlying Bitcoin holdings. 10X Money Talks highlighted that investors buying some of these vehicles are effectively getting BTC at a significant discount, similar to the setup of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust discount before spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved.

Cardone noted that the trade depends on Bitcoin recovering and the discount to net asset value closing over time. He suggested that BTC-focused operating companies could benefit if they combine business revenue with a treasury strategy that accumulates Bitcoin over time.