Bitcoin could be approaching a period of weakness after posting a double-digit gain in July, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen. In a podcast on July 31, Cowen warned that the cryptocurrency’s performance aligns with a familiar bear market pattern observed in prior midterm-election years, suggesting that the recent relief rally may be prologue to a correction in August or September.

The stakes for investors are significant, as a repeat of historical patterns would imply renewed selling pressure later in the third quarter. Cowen noted that Bitcoin gained around 10% in July, consistent with rebounds seen after sharp declines in June during previous midterm cycles. This movement suggests that while short-term sentiment has improved, structural headwinds remain intact.

Historical Precedents

Cowen pointed to specific instances in 2018 and 2022 where Bitcoin rebounded from June lows before facing renewed declines. In 2022, Bitcoin gained nearly 20% in July before declining in each of the following two months. A similar sequence occurred in 2018, when a nearly 38% rally in July was followed by losses in August and September.

Cowen stated that Bitcoin’s 2026 year-to-date performance has closely tracked its 2018 trajectory. However, he emphasized that the exact timing of the next decline remains uncertain, estimating the window of weakness to begin within the next two to three weeks.

Technical Resistance Levels

It remains unclear whether Bitcoin will reach its bear market resistance band or the 200-day moving average before another correction begins. During the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin reached its resistance band following the June low but failed to touch the 200-day moving average. In 2022, it did not reach either level during the summer rebound.

Cowen indicated that the current rally could extend into early or mid-August, but history suggests selling pressure will likely intensify later in the quarter. "We’ll see Bitcoin come back down as we get later into the month of August and notably September," he said.

Macro Headwinds

Rising U.S. Treasury yields add another layer of risk to the outlook. Cowen compared the current environment with 2023, when Bitcoin weakened after July as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed. He believes that renewed pressure from higher yields could weigh on risk assets even without additional interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

If Bitcoin follows the patterns seen in 2014, 2018, 2022, or 2023, Cowen believes another correction could unfold during the latter part of the third quarter. Investors should monitor these technical and macroeconomic indicators closely as the market navigates this critical period.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) are displaying bearish structural signals, with analysts identifying $60,000 and $1,686 as critical downside targets should current support levels fail. Market participants are closely monitoring these levels as technical breakdowns suggest increased volatility and potential further declines in the near term.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted that a $38 million Coldcard hardware wallet drain impacted markets on Thursday, pushing Bitcoin below key moving averages. He noted that the structure remains barely intact above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. Van de Poppe identified $60,000 to $61,000 as the last meaningful support zone, stating that buyers must emerge here to prevent new lows. He added that Nasdaq strength could potentially pull Bitcoin back after the US open.

TraderMorin confirmed a structural breakdown, noting Bitcoin formed a lower low on Tuesday followed by a lower high overnight. He identified the swing lows accumulated around $61,300 to $61,800 as the next logical target.

Offering a counter view, Raoul Pal stated that Bitcoin is 87% correlated to global liquidity. He argued that the current weakness reflects liquidity conditions rather than fundamental problems, writing, "Nothing is broken. It's doing exactly what it always does."

BTC Key Levels — July 31, 2026

Ethereum Technical Outlook

Analyst Cold Blooded Shiller indicated that bearish divergence on Ethereum is becoming clear, requiring significant work to stop a rollover. He sees $2,000 as a potential liquidity sweep target before the price falls toward roughly $1,686. "Going to take a lot of work to stop this from rolling over," he wrote.

Ali Martinez flagged a live TD Sequential sell signal, noting the same indicator previously flashed a buy near $1,500 ahead of a 31.5% rally. With Ethereum trading around $1,980 at the time of his post, Martinez suggested it may be time to lock in profits.

On-chain analyst Aria Naka highlighted three simultaneous data points: stablecoin liquidity on Binance fell 518% week-over-week, the Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) premium index slipped to negative 0.12, and large-holder exchange activity is trending lower across all timeframes. She described this combination as resembling prior consolidation phases before a directional resolution.

ETH Key Levels — July 31, 2026

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between technical breakdowns and liquidity-based arguments highlights a market in transition. While traders like Van de Poppe and TraderMorin focus on structural failures and specific price targets, macro-analysts like Raoul Pal attribute movements to broader liquidity flows. This split suggests that short-term trading strategies may differ significantly from longer-term investment theses, with immediate downside risks defined by the $60,000 level for Bitcoin and $1,686 for Ethereum.