Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has delivered nearly identical returns under President Donald Trump’s second term and former President Joe Biden’s administration, suggesting macroeconomic conditions, not politics, have been the dominant force. In a podcast on June 30, analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s price action across recent U.S. presidential administrations and found that the current cycle is tracking Biden’s term far more closely than many investors may expect.

After 524 days in office, Bitcoin was down 43.8% during Biden’s presidency. At the same point in Trump’s second term, the cryptocurrency was down 41.1%, a remarkably similar trajectory despite vastly different political environments. By comparison, Bitcoin’s strongest presidential-cycle performances came during Barack Obama’s second term and Trump’s first administration. However, Cowen noted those gains coincided with Bitcoin’s much smaller market capitalization.

Macro Shift Changed The Cycle

Cowen argued the primary difference between earlier Bitcoin bull markets and the current cycle has been the broader macroeconomic backdrop. Unlike previous cycles, investors have had to contend with persistent inflation, higher unemployment concerns and tighter financial conditions, all of which have weighed on risk assets. Rather than attributing Bitcoin’s weakness to politics, Cowen said macroeconomic conditions have largely dictated market performance.

Cowen also highlighted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as an important macro indicator. He noted that the dollar’s recent recovery closely resembles its behavior during Trump’s first administration, when it initially weakened after inauguration before recovering and acting as a headwind for risk assets. Based on that historical comparison, Cowen expects the dollar could continue strengthening toward the 105-106 range, potentially creating additional pressure for cryptocurrencies through the remainder of the year.

History Suggests Bottom Could Come Later This Year

Despite the prolonged correction, Cowen pointed to similarities with the previous market cycle. During Biden’s presidency, Bitcoin experienced a brief counter-trend rally in late summer before making one final decline that ultimately marked the cycle bottom ahead of the next bull market. If the current cycle continues following that historical pattern, Cowen believes Bitcoin could establish its bottom later this year before beginning a new expansion phase in 2027.

Cryptocurrencies gained ground on Thursday while major stock indexes closed at all-time highs, as softer-than-expected jobs data lowered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The recovery lifted major cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin posting gains, suggesting potential stabilization despite continued volatility in exchange-traded products.

Cryptocurrency Prices

The following table details the prices and 24-hour gains of major cryptocurrencies recorded at 10:20 p.m. EDT.

Market Statistics and Flows

Bitcoin briefly broke $62,000 but failed to sustain the rally, pulling back to the low $61,000 range. Ethereum experienced a more pronounced rally, breaking through the $1,700 level before consolidating sideways. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.2 trillion, following a dip of 0.79% over the last 24 hours.

Coinglass data shows nearly $460 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, predominantly in short positions. Bitcoin’s open interest rose 1.14% over the last 24 hours to $46.22 billion. Derivatives traders on Binance, including both retail and whale investors, remained net long on the leading cryptocurrency but trimmed their long positions.

Top Gainers

In the past 24 hours, top gainers include Magma Finance, MemeCore, and LAB.

Analyst Perspectives

Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that Bitcoin’s failure to hold $60,000 could trigger accelerated selling, potentially driving the price down toward its realized price of $53,000, which serves as a major support level. CryptoQuant reported that the average Bitcoin deposit size has doubled from 1 BTC to 2 BTC, signaling increased activity from whales and institutional investors rather than retail participants. "Whales appear to be leading the move. Incoming volatility," the firm added.

Michaël van de Poppe, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, said that he’s not selling his altcoins and plans to take profits once market excitement around altcoins returns. "The markets are just waking up and sentiment can change fast," Van De Poppe said. "There’s no need to be looking to be selling the actual market bottom, as that would be here."

Broader Market Context

Major indexes bounced back on Thursday after a brief pause. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 594.83 points, or 1.14%, to hit a record close of 52,900.07. The S&P 500 eked out a narrow gain to end at 7,483.24, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8% to close at 25,832.67.

U.S. job growth slowed sharply in June, with only 57,000 jobs added, missing economists’ forecast of 110,000 and down from 129,000 in May. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, below the 4.3% consensus. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed markets lowering the likelihood of the Fed keeping the rates unchanged in September to 45% from nearly 50% the day before.