Bitcoin and Ethereum are displaying technical and on-chain indicators suggesting the formation of major market bottoms, according to analysis by crypto chart expert Ali Martinez. The assessment follows a period of volatility where Bitcoin retreated to around $58,000 and Ethereum traded near $1,500, with the global cryptocurrency market capitalization holding steady at $2.07 trillion. The analysis points to specific accumulation levels that have historically preceded significant recoveries.

Bitcoin's Macro Bottom Zone

Martinez identified $48,300 as a critical long-term accumulation level for Bitcoin. This price point corresponds to Bitcoin’s Investor Price, an on-chain metric estimating the average acquisition cost of economically active coins by excluding permanently lost Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has found major bear-market bottoms around this level, establishing it as a key long-term support metric.

Recent accumulation trends show retail investors holding less than one Bitcoin and mid-sized holders with 10 to 100 BTC leading the buying activity over the past month. The largest entities, controlling between 1,000 and 100,000 BTC, have also turned into net buyers, albeit at a slower pace. Martinez noted that synchronized buying by both retail investors and whales has historically coincided with durable market bottoms and laid the foundation for longer-term recoveries.

ETH Monthly Buy Signal Returns

Ethereum has entered a historically significant support zone, with $1,100 representing the lower boundary of its long-term price channel dating back to 2021. Previous tests of this channel floor have attracted aggressive buying, making it a high-conviction long-term accumulation area. If Ethereum successfully defends this support, projections indicate an initial recovery toward the channel midpoint near $3,000, followed by a potential move toward the upper boundary around $5,000.

Adding to the bullish outlook, the TD Sequential indicator has printed a fresh monthly buy signal for Ethereum. Previous monthly signals preceded a 78% correction from the 2021 highs, a 235% rally following the 2022 bottom, and a 182% advance after the March 2025 buy signal. The latest signal points to macro-level seller exhaustion and suggests Ethereum may be carving out another major bottom.

Market Performance and Liquidations

Despite the optimistic long-term indicators, short-term market pressure remains. Nearly $250 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with $183 million in bullish long positions erased. Bitcoin’s open interest rose 1.52%, indicating a short buildup as sellers enter the market. "Extreme Fear" sentiment persisted in the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000 on Thursday, even as ETF outflows since May 6 tally $8.5 billion—a level analytics firm Santiment says historically signals capitulation. The cryptocurrency's recovery came after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a notably softer tone regarding inflation risks at the ECB's forum in Sintra, Portugal. This marked a shift from the hawkish June rate outlook that had triggered weeks of ETF outflows and sent Bitcoin sliding through the entire quarter. Bitcoin had been pinned below $60,000 for days and touched as low as $58,200 earlier this week before the comments shifted market mood.

ETF Outflows Signal Capitulation

Santiment flagged that Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded $8.475 billion in combined net outflows since May 6. The analytics firm noted that this kind of streak historically signals retail fear and frustration rather than a fresh reason to sell. Santiment's analysis frames heavy outflows as a sentiment signal, not a directional one. When ETF investors pull money at this scale and pace, it tends to mark the point where weak hands have already left rather than the beginning of a new leg lower. The longer this outflow streak extends, the stronger the case that Bitcoin is approaching a genuine bottom zone.

Market Context and Analyst Views

Bitcoin held its gains despite broader market unease. South Korea's Kospi fell 7.9% after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shed a combined $290 billion in market value on AI chip demand worries. Meta added to the uncertainty by announcing plans to sell spare computing power to outside customers, reviving questions about whether the AI infrastructure buildout has outpaced real demand. FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich had flagged $40,000 as the next real support level if Bitcoin lost the $60,000 floor, but Thursday's push back above $61,000 puts distance between current price and that scenario.

Upcoming Economic Data

Friday's US payrolls report now sets the tone for July. A strong print gives the Fed cover to stay restrictive and could reignite outflow pressure. A soft number revives rate cut bets and extends Bitcoin's relief rally.