Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000 on Thursday, even as ETF outflows since May 6 tally $8.5 billion—a level analytics firm Santiment says historically signals capitulation. The cryptocurrency's recovery came after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a notably softer tone regarding inflation risks at the ECB's forum in Sintra, Portugal. This marked a shift from the hawkish June rate outlook that had triggered weeks of ETF outflows and sent Bitcoin sliding through the entire quarter. Bitcoin had been pinned below $60,000 for days and touched as low as $58,200 earlier this week before the comments shifted market mood.

ETF Outflows Signal Capitulation

Santiment flagged that Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded $8.475 billion in combined net outflows since May 6. The analytics firm noted that this kind of streak historically signals retail fear and frustration rather than a fresh reason to sell. Santiment's analysis frames heavy outflows as a sentiment signal, not a directional one. When ETF investors pull money at this scale and pace, it tends to mark the point where weak hands have already left rather than the beginning of a new leg lower. The longer this outflow streak extends, the stronger the case that Bitcoin is approaching a genuine bottom zone.

Market Context and Analyst Views

Bitcoin held its gains despite broader market unease. South Korea's Kospi fell 7.9% after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shed a combined $290 billion in market value on AI chip demand worries. Meta added to the uncertainty by announcing plans to sell spare computing power to outside customers, reviving questions about whether the AI infrastructure buildout has outpaced real demand. FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich had flagged $40,000 as the next real support level if Bitcoin lost the $60,000 floor, but Thursday's push back above $61,000 puts distance between current price and that scenario.

Upcoming Economic Data

Friday's US payrolls report now sets the tone for July. A strong print gives the Fed cover to stay restrictive and could reignite outflow pressure. A soft number revives rate cut bets and extends Bitcoin's relief rally.

Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy revealed he lost most of a $15 million Bitcoin position but refuses to sell, acknowledging the asset may go to zero. In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Portnoy stated that while he checks the position daily, it is not a material enough portion of his net worth to force a change in behavior.

Trading History and Losses

Portnoy traced his crypto history back to a meeting with the Winklevoss twins, who pitched him on Bitcoin at $11,000. He bought $2 million worth and sold immediately after the meeting, dismissing their explanation about Elon Musk mining gold from outer space. Bitcoin subsequently rose from $11,000 to $60,000 in roughly six months.

He re-entered the market at higher prices, eventually building a position worth roughly $15 million at its peak. "I'm not going to sell it," Portnoy said. "It may go to zero. I may lose millions again."

Timeline of Key Trades

Legal Issues and Market Outlook

Portnoy disclosed that he dabbled in meme coins during the last cycle, describing it as one of the craziest experiences of his 20 years at Barstool Sports. He selected a coin called SafeMoon on camera, telling his audience it was probably a scam, and was subsequently named in a lawsuit alongside influencers accused of undisclosed promotions. He lost the money, hired a lawyer, and was later dismissed from the case.

Regarding the current market, Portnoy said he has no edge. He referenced Strategy Inc.'s recent Bitcoin sales, questioning the narrative surrounding the transactions. "You got Saylor selling it saying it's good that he's selling it. Who knows?" he said. Portnoy noted his current stock portfolio is deliberately conservative and managed through a broker, with nothing speculative beyond his Bitcoin position.