PayPal Holdings Inc. will release its second-quarter earnings report before the market opens on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, facing a consensus estimate of $1.28 per share and revenue of $8.47 billion. The earnings print arrives just one week after the board rejected a $53 billion joint acquisition proposal from Stripe Inc. and Advent International Corp., a move that has intensified scrutiny on the company’s valuation strategy. While prediction markets suggest investors are focusing on operational priorities like biometrics and stablecoins rather than the takeover bid, recent analyst actions indicate a nuanced shift in Wall Street’s outlook. Shares of PayPal fell 0.1% to close at $56.07 on Monday, trading well below the board’s reported counter-expectations near $70 per share.

The consensus EPS estimate of $1.28 represents a decline from $1.40 per share in the year-ago period, reflecting broader headwinds in the digital payments sector. Revenue expectations have risen slightly to $8.47 billion, up from $8.29 billion reported in the same quarter last year. This modest growth projection underscores the challenge for new CEO Enrique Lores, who assumed his role in March, to demonstrate operational momentum capable of justifying the board’s holdout stance against the acquirers. A strong operational performance is critical to defending the valuation gap, as weak results could strengthen Stripe’s negotiating position or invite further pressure from shareholders.

Recent Analyst Rating Changes

Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties and competitive pressures from rivals like Block Inc., Google, and Apple, several top-performing analysts have recently upgraded their ratings or raised price targets for PayPal. These adjustments suggest growing confidence in the company’s ability to navigate the post-bid landscape.

Truist Securities’ Matthew Coad led the recent upgrades, raising his price target from $44 to $57 and moving the stock from Sell to Hold on July 24. Barclays’ Ramey El-Assal followed suit on July 16, upgrading the stock from Underweight to Equal-Weight with a $55 target. Canaccord Genuity’s Joseph Vafi also raised his target to $55 on the same day, maintaining a Hold rating. In contrast, Goldman Sachs’ Will Nance maintained a Sell rating but increased his price target from $41 to $48 on July 9, acknowledging some upside potential while remaining cautious.

Operational Focus Areas

Prediction markets offer insight into the likely themes of the earnings call. Polymarket traders assign an 85% probability that PayPal will beat the $1.28 non-GAAP EPS estimate. However, data from Kalshi indicates management is unlikely to discuss the bidder by name, with "Stripe" priced at only a 30% chance of being mentioned. Instead, focus is expected to shift toward operational initiatives.

"Biometric" adoption leads the list of expected topics with a 66% probability of mention. Management has previously stated that scaling biometric authentication paired with redesigned checkout experiences lifts conversion rates by 2 to 5 percentage points. This aligns with a biometric identity verification program announced in April under Lores. "Braintree," PayPal’s unbranded processing arm, and "Stablecoin" both sit at a 65% probability. Braintree powers checkouts for major platforms like Uber and Airbnb, directly competing with Stripe’s business model. Meanwhile, PayPal expanded its PYUSD stablecoin to 70 markets in March, though its circulating supply has contracted from a peak above $4 billion to roughly $2.7 billion.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between analyst upgrades and the rejected acquisition bid highlights a complex valuation narrative. PayPal’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10 remains significantly lower than the S&P 500 Index’s average of 20 and its own five-year average of 18. The stock has fallen from a record high of $300 to a low of $40, driven by intense competition and the rise of faster, lower-cost stablecoin alternatives. The upcoming earnings call will serve as a critical test of whether operational improvements in biometrics and agentic commerce can justify the board’s valuation stance. With regulatory hurdles potentially delaying any future M&A activity for 18 to 24 months, immediate operational execution remains the primary driver for shareholder value.

Barclays analyst Ramsey El-Assal has upgraded PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) from Underweight to Equal-Weight while adjusting the valuation outlook. The firm raised the price target to $55, an increase from the previous target of $42.

Rating and Price Target Details

The revision reflects an updated assessment of the company's stock price potential alongside a more positive recommendation. The table below summarizes the changes:

PayPal Holdings remains under coverage with an improved stance, as indicated by the upgrade to Equal-Weight.