Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) has secured a $1.6 billion contract from the United States Space Force (USSF) to execute 18 Falcon 9 rocket launches. Awarded on Wednesday as part of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3, Lane 1 program, the deal strengthens SpaceX’s position in the national security launch market and provides significant revenue visibility through 2027.

The launches fall under the USSF’s Space Based Sensing and Targeting (SBST) portfolio and will originate from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The company is required to complete all 18 missions by the end of 2027. This contract reinforces SpaceX’s dominance in government contracting, offering a steady stream of high-value missions that support both national security objectives and the company’s operational cadence.

Contract Details

Beyond this immediate win, CEO Elon Musk addressed long-term cost structures and future ambitions. Responding to ARK Invest’s Brett Winton regarding heat shield criticisms, Musk stated that Starship’s cost to orbit could drop "well below $100/kg" if the vehicle achieves "immediate & complete reusability." He emphasized that this reduction depends on local production of liquid methane (CH4) and oxygen.

Strategic Outlook

Musk also reaffirmed SpaceX’s timeline for Mars colonization, stating in a post on X on July 29, 2026, that humans could reach Mars in "roughly 5 to 7 years," with a Mars lander arriving "a few years sooner." This comes despite comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, who suggested SpaceX’s priority shift toward the Moon might alter the Mars schedule. Isaacman previously highlighted SpaceX’s critical role in NASA’s Artemis program and its goals for a permanent lunar presence.

Market Reaction

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. rose 0.55% to $113.17 in premarket trading on Thursday following the announcement. However, Benzinga Edge Rankings indicate that SpaceX currently fails to show a favorable price trend across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Investors will likely monitor how this large government contract translates into earnings growth against the backdrop of broader market sentiment toward the unlisted but traded entity.

Echelon Wealth Partners co-founder Peter Schiff has declared that the artificial intelligence-induced stock market bubble reached its zenith with the initial public offering of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX), warning that substantial overvaluation persists in the sector. In a post on X on July 28, 2026, Schiff highlighted that SpaceX shares have declined more than 20% since going public and have fallen over 52% from their all-time high of $225 per share, signaling that "a lot more air" remains to be released from overhyped AI-related equities.

The economist’s commentary underscores a broader shift in market sentiment toward AI-driven valuations. Schiff previously cautioned investors against buying into hype, noting that SpaceX was "coming back down to earth" following its post-IPO rally. This downward trajectory has erased a valuation amount equivalent to Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) market capitalization, reflecting severe pressure on high-growth tech assets. The decline also contributed to Elon Musk losing approximately $100 billion in net worth within a week, reducing his total wealth to around $724 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, thereby ending his status as a trillionaire.

Market Sentiment and Short Interest

Market data supports the bearish outlook expressed by Schiff. Research firm S3 Partners reported that SpaceX has emerged as the second-most profitable company for short sellers, who have generated profits exceeding $7 billion by betting against the commercial spaceflight giant. The total value of short positions against SpaceX has reportedly surpassed $26 billion, indicating strong institutional skepticism regarding the company’s near-term valuation prospects.

Technical Outlook

Technical indicators further reflect the negative momentum surrounding the stock. Benzinga Edge Rankings indicate that SpaceX fails to exhibit favorable price trends across short, medium, and long-term horizons. During overnight trading on Tuesday, SpaceX shares decreased by 1.33% to close at $114.86. This continued depreciation aligns with Schiff’s assertion that the AI trade is actively unwinding, suggesting that investors may face further downside risk if broader market corrections in the technology sector materialize.