Gary Black expects Tesla rebound as sell-side raises earnings targets

Tesla Inc. shares are trading higher as investors digest fresh delivery commentary and position for potential estimate revisions into the next earnings cycle. Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC argued that Tesla’s second-quarter delivery beat was fueled by an Iran war-driven spike in gas prices to $3.86 per gallon over the July 4 weekend, up from $2.98 per gallon before the conflict. Black expects Tesla shares to rebound this week as the sell-side raises Q2 and FY 2026 earnings estimates, which could flow through to higher price targets.

Delivery Estimates and Market Context

Tesla’s delivery debate remains unusually wide, with Black calling estimates "all over the place" while still modeling close to 410,000 Q2 units versus approximately 406,000 consensus. If realized, this represents about a 7% year-over-year surge. Premarket trading is taking place against a constructive index backdrop, with S&P 500 futures higher by 0.5%, which can amplify moves in high-beta mega-cap names like Tesla when sentiment improves.

Technical Levels and Momentum

Tesla is sitting in a choppy, mean-reversion zone: it’s trading 0.3% below the 20-day SMA ($399.16) and 0.1% below the 100-day SMA ($398.08), while still 5% below the 200-day SMA ($418.61). Momentum looks more neutral than stretched, with RSI at 46.69. The bigger-picture trend backdrop remains a headwind, since the 20-day SMA is below the 50-day SMA and the death cross that formed in April still frames rallies as "prove it" moves until price can hold above longer-term resistance.

Level Type	Price ($)
Key Resistance	453.00
Key Support	393.50
20-day SMA	399.16
100-day SMA	398.08
200-day SMA	418.61

Earnings Preview and Analyst Actions

The next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 22, 2026 earnings report. Analysts expect EPS of 44 cents, up from 40 cents year-over-year, and revenue of $25.24 billion, up from $22.50 billion year-over-year. The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $398.55. Recent analyst moves include Freedom Broker raising its target to $420.00, Morgan Stanley maintaining its target at $415.00, and Truist Securities raising its target to $430.00.

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Tesla’s Benzinga Edge scorecard highlights a growth-heavy profile with mixed momentum and a very weak value score. Momentum is neutral with a score of 43.93, Quality is neutral at 61.42, Value is weak at 3.6, and Growth is strong at 88.15. The valuation leaves the stock more sensitive to earnings-estimate changes, requiring the chart to confirm via reclaiming major resistance for longer-term bulls.

Tesla Inc. showcased the Cybercab robotaxi’s accessibility features at the National Federation of the Blind’s annual convention in Austin, Texas, highlighting Braille lettering on controls and dedicated space for service animals. Elon Musk emphasized the initiative on social media, stating the company is ensuring the Cybercab meets the needs of the blind. The demonstration included hands-on interactions for blind and visually impaired riders, positioning the vehicle as an inclusive transport solution despite its futuristic design without a steering wheel or pedals.

Accessibility Features

The Cybercab integrates several specific design elements to assist visually impaired passengers. The official Tesla Robotaxi presentation detailed these inclusions:

Feature	Description
Braille Controls	Tactile markings on the hazard button, which doubles as an emergency stop, and on interior door releases.
Service Animal Space	Dedicated room within the vehicle to accommodate guide dogs and other assistive devices.
Seating	Wheelchair-height seating to facilitate easier transfers for passengers.

Production Timeline and Targets

Tesla unveiled the Cybercab in October 2024 with a targeted price below $30,000 and a wireless charging system. The rollout progressed to the first production version revealed at Tesla’s Gigafactory in Texas in February. The company plans to sell the vehicle for $30,000 or less by 2027. However, Musk has cautioned that early production for the Cybercab and Optimus projects will be "agonizingly slow," even as the company targets a long-term production goal of 2 million robotaxis per year. Currently, Tesla’s robotaxi operations in Austin rely on a small fleet of Model Y vehicles.

Competitive Landscape

The focus on accessibility arrives as Tesla competes with Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo, which currently offers a more mature suite of features. Waymo’s application provides turn-by-turn directions using visual, audio, and haptic cues, a chime to help locate the vehicle, in-car narration settings, and support for service animals. Waymo has also collaborated with organizations such as the Foundation for Blind Children and LightHouse for the Blind and Visually Impaired to optimize the full trip experience.