Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc shares rose to a nine-month high, gaining 69.3% year-to-date, after the restaurant operator reported third-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations and raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance. The stock rebound follows a significant decline in late 2025 triggered by a controversial logo and décor change that drew public criticism. Third-quarter revenue of $797.37 million beat analyst estimates of $776.69 million, while adjusted earnings of 29 cents per share significantly outperformed expectations for a loss of 45 cents per share.

Third-Quarter Financial Performance

Cracker Barrel reported total revenue of $797.4 million for the quarter, a decrease of 2.9% from the prior year. GAAP net income was $42.8 million, compared to $12.6 million in the prior year, significantly impacted by a $47.4 million litigation settlement benefit. Adjusted EBITDA was $40.3 million, down from $48.1 million in the prior year. Restaurant revenue was $658.4 million, while retail revenue was $139 million.

Operational Metrics and Strategic Initiatives

Cracker Barrel’s traffic fell 6.7% year over year, partly offset by a 4.3% increase in average check driven by pricing. Restaurant comparable sales declined 2.6%, while retail comparable sales were down 1.8%, outperforming restaurants thanks to higher average unit retail and improved merchandising. Off-premise sales accounted for 19.6% of restaurant revenue, up about 50 basis points from a year earlier, fueled by growth in catering and third-party delivery. Commodity inflation was approximately 2.5%, driven by higher beef, pork, produce, and seafood costs, partially offset by lower egg and dairy prices.

The company focused on strategic initiatives including operational improvements, menu enhancements, and increased profitability. Guest satisfaction scores improved, with Google star ratings increasing 4% year-over-year and food taste scores rising 5%. Managerial turnover improved by 6%, outperforming the industry. The company upgraded its website and leveraged AI to enhance the guest experience and improve operational efficiency, including a machine learning traffic forecasting model to support better labor deployment.

Fiscal 2026 Outlook

Cracker Barrel updated its fiscal 2026 guidance, raising expectations for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Total revenue is now expected to be between $3.27 billion and $3.30 billion, up from the previous range of $3.24 billion to $3.27 billion. The company expects low-4% pricing growth, low-2% commodity inflation, and low-2% wage inflation. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to a range of $120 million to $125 million, compared to the previous outlook of $85 million to $100 million. Capital expenditures are expected to be between $105 million and $115 million.

Analyst Reactions

Following the earnings announcement, several analysts adjusted their price targets on Cracker Barrel. Wells Fargo analyst Anthony Trainor upgraded the stock from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raised the price target from $35 to $50. Citigroup analyst Jon Tower maintained the stock with a Sell rating and raised the price target from $28 to $34. Bank of America Securities maintained an Underperform rating and raised the price target from $31 to $34. UBS maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $31 to $37.

Balance Sheet & Capital Allocation

The company ended the quarter with total debt of $486.6 million, consisting of $149.9 million in short-term debt and $336.8 million in long-term debt. The consolidated total debt leverage ratio was 2.4. The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on August 12, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 17, 2026.

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger has maintained a Neutral rating on Cracker Barrel Old while raising the price target to $37. The previous target was $31. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker CBRL.

Rating and Price Target Details

The following table outlines the revised valuation metrics provided by UBS: