Birkenstock raises FY26 outlook after Q3 revenue beat
Birkenstock Holding plc reported Q3 revenue of $836.49 million, beating estimates, and raised its full-year revenue and EBITDA outlook. Analysts from Guggenheim and BTIG maintained Buy ratings with $60 price targets, citing strong DTC growth and resilient demand despite margin pressure from tariffs and FX.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE: BIRK) reported mixed third-quarter results, with top-line revenue exceeding forecasts while earnings per share fell short of analyst expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $836.49 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $822.83 million by 1.66%. However, adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.86, missing the estimate of $0.87 by 1.15%. Following the release, shares jumped 16.88% to $42.94 as the company raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook, though the stock later edged lower in early trading on Friday to $39.80, a decline of 2.09%.
During the earnings conference call, CEO Oliver Reichert underscored the continued strength of the brand, stating that demand remained robust despite inflationary pressure on consumer wallets and increased markdown activity across the broader retail industry.
The financial performance showed significant year-over-year improvement in both key metrics. Adjusted EPS rose 22.86% from $0.70 per share in the same period last year. Similarly, sales grew 16.18% year-over-year, up from $720.01 million in the prior year’s quarter. In euro terms, third-quarter revenue rose 13% year over year to €720 million and increased 15% on a constant-currency basis.
Margin Pressure From Tariffs and FX
While revenue growth remained robust, margins faced headwinds from foreign exchange fluctuations and incremental US tariffs. Adjusted gross margin fell 130 basis points to 59.2%, reflecting a 60-basis-point currency hit and a 70-basis-point impact from US tariffs. Improved capacity absorption partly offset these pressures. Analysts noted that the gross margin contraction was better than feared, coming in higher than the consensus estimate of 58.7%.
Adjusted EBITDA climbed 11% to €242 million, but the adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed 70 basis points to 33.7%. Adjusted net profit rose 15% to €134 million, while adjusted earnings per share in euros increased 19% to €0.74.
| Metric | Q3 Actual | Estimate | Variance | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS (USD): | $0.86 | $0.87 | -1.15% | $0.70 | +22.86% |
| Sales (USD): | $836.49M | $822.83M | +1.66% | $720.01M | +16.18% |
| Revenue (EUR): | €720M | — | — | — | +13% |
| Adj. EBITDA (EUR): | €242M | — | — | — | +11% |
| Adj. Net Profit (EUR): | €134M | — | — | — | +15% |
DTC Growth Accelerates
Direct-to-consumer revenue increased 14% (16% at constant currency), outpacing business-to-business growth of 13% (15% at constant currency). Birkenstock added 13 company-owned stores during the quarter, bringing its global total to 124. BTIG analyst Janine Stichter noted that digital growth accelerated meaningfully versus the first half of the year, while B2B growth remained consistent with recent trends.
Growth remained broad across regions:
- Americas revenue increased 11% (14% constant currency), in line with the previous quarter and slightly above Street expectations.
- EMEA sales rose 15% (15% constant currency), accelerating from the previous quarter’s 11% and beating consensus.
- APAC revenue jumped 18% (23% constant currency). Excluding Australia, APAC growth approached 30%. However, Guggenheim Securities analyst Simeon Siegel noted that APAC growth decelerated to 23% from 30% in the second quarter, missing expectations.
The company invested about €26 million in capital expenditures during the quarter, primarily to expand production capacity and global retail operations. Operating cash flow totaled €246.5 million in the quarter, compared with €260.6 million a year earlier. Birkenstock ended June with €694 million in cash and cash equivalents. Net leverage increased to 1.8 times from 1.5 times at the end of September following a €230 million accelerated share repurchase.
Raised 2026 Outlook
Birkenstock raised its constant-currency revenue growth outlook to 15% for the full year, up from the previous range of 13% to 15%. The company expects reported revenue at the high end of its previous €2.30 billion to €2.35 billion range. The company also raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to at least €710 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.2% to 30.5%.
The company maintained its adjusted gross margin outlook of 57% to 57.5% and adjusted earnings guidance of €1.90 to €2.05 per share. It raised its expected tax rate to 30% to 31% from 26% to 28%, primarily due to non-deductible, non-cash expenses tied to refinancing and the accelerated share repurchase.
Analyst Reactions
Following the results, analysts reaffirmed their bullish stance on the stock:
- Guggenheim Securities analyst Simeon Siegel reiterated a Buy rating and price target of $60, highlighting industry-leading growth rates in DTC and wholesale channels.
- BTIG analyst Janine Stichter maintained a Buy rating and price target of $60, noting strong underlying demand and a beat on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between the strong revenue beat (+1.66%) and the narrow EPS miss (-1.15%) highlights that core operational demand remains resilient despite external cost pressures. The explicit attribution of gross margin compression to US tariffs (70 bps) and currency (60 bps) indicates that the earnings miss was not driven by weak volume or pricing power, but rather by macroeconomic headwinds. Furthermore, the acceleration in DTC growth (16% constant currency) versus wholesale (15%) suggests a successful strategic shift toward higher-margin channels, which should support long-term profitability even as near-term margins face tariff-related contraction.
How might the anticipated 70-basis-point impact from US tariffs evolve in Q4, and will Birkenstock implement price increases to offset these costs without dampening demand?
Given the acceleration in DTC growth outpacing wholesale, what is the projected timeline for DTC channels to become the primary driver of margin expansion?
With net leverage rising to 1.8x following the accelerated share repurchase, how does management plan to balance debt reduction with continued capital expenditures for production capacity?





























