President Donald Trump has again predicted that a US-Iran nuclear deal is imminent, stating an agreement could be signed within two to three days. This marks at least the 38th time Trump has made such a prediction since March 23. The repeated assurances come despite the original ceasefire announced on April 7, which was intended to allow two weeks for finalization, having passed without an agreement.

Prediction markets indicate significant skepticism regarding the timeline. Traders on Polymarket place the probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at approximately 22%, while the likelihood of a deal by July 31 sits at roughly 36%. A separate market for a permanent peace deal by June 30 has drifted into the low 20s following reports that Iran suspended talks after Israeli operations in Lebanon.

The potential resolution of the conflict carries high stakes for global oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates the transport of about a fifth of seaborne oil, has been effectively closed since late February. Brent crude recently traded around $86 a barrel, a decline from above $110 in mid-May when ceasefire optimism was higher.

Market Impact

The uncertainty has created significant volatility in oil-linked assets. Executives at Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp have warned that global inventories may be running dangerously low. The United States Oil Fund LP has roughly doubled year-to-date, becoming one of 2026's most consequential commodity trades. A confirmed reopening of the Strait would likely pressure these positions, whereas a collapse in talks could provide relief.

Probability Metrics

Trump acknowledged the friction in the negotiations during an interview with Axios, blaming a "side scuffle" between Israel and Iran for jeopardizing the deal. Despite conceding on May 18 that past predictions had not materialized, he maintained that the current situation is different.

India's Oil Minister has indicated that suppliers from the Western Hemisphere are expected to compensate for existing energy shortages, while also expressing confidence that oil and gas stocks will remain sufficient and that prices will ease in the coming months, according to CNN News18.

Minister's Outlook on Energy Supply

The Oil Minister's remarks signal a strategic outlook toward diversifying India's energy sourcing. By pointing to Western Hemisphere suppliers as a potential buffer against shortages, the statement underscores India's intent to maintain energy security through alternative supply channels.

Price and Stock Expectations

Alongside supply assurances, the minister conveyed expectations of adequate oil and gas inventory levels in the near term. The anticipation of price moderation in the coming months adds a note of optimism regarding the energy cost environment for consumers and industries alike.