Investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki on Tuesday reaffirmed his belief that the Iran War has provided a way to switch to alternative fuels, ditching oil. Taking to the social media platform X, Gerber quoted a Barron's post outlining how the challenges posed by the war in Iran could deter global oil demand. He described the situation as "Best news ever," adding that there are alternatives to oil that are "better for earth and more profitable."

Shift to Electric Energy

Gerber stated that the situation showed the world did not need to rely on an "oil-based" economy. "The future is electric powered by the sun," Gerber said. He had earlier said that the war in Iran presented a "great opportunity" to ditch fossil fuels. The comments come as geopolitical instability impacts energy markets.

Geopolitical Tensions and Gas Prices

Uncertainty looms over peace talks as Trump vowed to deliver a strong response after alleging that a U.S. Apache helicopter was downed by Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran denies. "I believe the response should be very strong, very powerful and that's what this one is," Trump said during an interview, also saying that both pilots were safe and accounted for after being rescued off the coast of Oman.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) criticized Trump’s handling of the war, saying that the President was not in control of the situation, despite claiming he was, as rising inflation continues with the war past the 100-day mark. The war has also sent container shipping costs surging.

Energy Market Data

Gas prices continued to be above the $4/gallon mark, with the national average price for a gallon of gas on Tuesday at $4.1610, according to data by the American Automobile Association (AAA). States like California continued to pay more than $5/gallon, outlining rising costs.

President Donald Trump has again predicted that a US-Iran nuclear deal is imminent, stating an agreement could be signed within two to three days. This marks at least the 38th time Trump has made such a prediction since March 23. The repeated assurances come despite the original ceasefire announced on April 7, which was intended to allow two weeks for finalization, having passed without an agreement.

Prediction markets indicate significant skepticism regarding the timeline. Traders on Polymarket place the probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at approximately 22%, while the likelihood of a deal by July 31 sits at roughly 36%. A separate market for a permanent peace deal by June 30 has drifted into the low 20s following reports that Iran suspended talks after Israeli operations in Lebanon.

The potential resolution of the conflict carries high stakes for global oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates the transport of about a fifth of seaborne oil, has been effectively closed since late February. Brent crude recently traded around $86 a barrel, a decline from above $110 in mid-May when ceasefire optimism was higher.

Market Impact

The uncertainty has created significant volatility in oil-linked assets. Executives at Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp have warned that global inventories may be running dangerously low. The United States Oil Fund LP has roughly doubled year-to-date, becoming one of 2026's most consequential commodity trades. A confirmed reopening of the Strait would likely pressure these positions, whereas a collapse in talks could provide relief.

Probability Metrics

Trump acknowledged the friction in the negotiations during an interview with Axios, blaming a "side scuffle" between Israel and Iran for jeopardizing the deal. Despite conceding on May 18 that past predictions had not materialized, he maintained that the current situation is different.