Gold broke through the $4,600 per ounce barrier for the first time on Monday, accompanied by silver reaching record highs, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran. The precious metals surge reflects growing uncertainty in global markets and expectations of monetary policy changes.

Record-Breaking Precious Metals Performance

Spot gold jumped 1.3% to $4,566.80 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $4,600.33 earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures for February delivery gained 1.8% to $4,579.10, demonstrating strong momentum across both spot and futures markets.

Silver outperformed other precious metals with a 4.1% gain to $83.20 per ounce, after touching an all-time high of $83.96 earlier in the session. Platinum climbed 3.4% to $2,349.59 per ounce, while palladium gained 3.4% to $1,877.96 per ounce.

Powell Criminal Probe Triggers Market Response

The precious metals rally gained momentum following revelations that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a criminal probe. Powell stated on Sunday that the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment over Congressional testimony, describing the action as a "pretext" aimed at pressuring the central bank to lower interest rates.

This development sent the dollar and U.S. equity futures lower, creating favorable conditions for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. According to Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, "between events in Iran, and potential U.S. involvement, and the (Fed) chair being the focus of a criminal probe... U.S. futures turned lower on the Powell news, which was a green light for gold to take a run higher."

Iran Tensions Add Geopolitical Risk Premium

Unrest in Iran has reportedly killed more than 500 people, with Tehran threatening to target U.S. military bases if President Donald Trump carries out renewed threats to strike the country on behalf of protesters. The Iranian situation adds to broader geopolitical uncertainties as Trump flexes U.S. muscles internationally, having ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and discussing acquiring Greenland by purchase or force.

Central Bank Demand Expected to Continue

Investors currently expect at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, creating a supportive environment for precious metals. Non-yielding assets typically perform well in low-interest-rate environments and during periods of geopolitical or economic uncertainty.

Waterer anticipates continued institutional demand, stating: "I expect that central bank appetite for gold and silver will continue to grow this year, with precious metals perceived as being a lower risk alternative to the dollar." This expectation of increased central bank purchases could provide additional support for precious metals prices in the coming months.

Gold prices witnessed a substantial rally across India on January 12, 2026, marking a significant overnight surge that brought renewed attention to the precious metal. The price movement was driven by a combination of global macro factors including a weakening US dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions that increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Domestic Gold Price Performance

The domestic gold market experienced remarkable gains across all purity levels on January 12. The following table illustrates the current pricing structure and overnight changes:

For larger quantities, 24-carat gold per 100 grams reached ₹14,21,500, representing an overnight increase of ₹16,900 from the previous day's ₹14,04,600. Similarly, 22-carat gold per 100 grams jumped by ₹15,500 to ₹13,03,000, while 18-carat gold per 100 grams rose by ₹12,700 to ₹10,66,100.

MCX Gold Technical Analysis

Technical analysts maintain a bullish stance on MCX Gold, citing strong structural support and favorable chart patterns. Abhishek M Pelu, Research Analyst at Way2Wealth Brokers, highlighted that MCX Gold continues to remain in an uptrend with the overall structure staying bullish. The 10 and 20 DEMA lines have acted as strong support zones, with this trend expected to continue.

ICICI Securities research analysts project that MCX Gold February contracts are expected to rise towards ₹1,41,500 level as long as the metal stays above ₹1,39,000 level.

Global Gold Market Outlook

Spot gold is positioned for further gains, with analysts projecting a rise towards $4,620 level supported by US dollar weakness. ICICI Securities research analysts noted that demand for safe-haven assets may increase due to elevated geopolitical tensions, including unrest in Iran, escalation in fighting between Russia and Ukraine, and US signals regarding Greenland.

Additional factors supporting gold's bullish outlook include:

• Uncertainty over tariffs as the Supreme Court deferred on the legality of tariffs
• Potential government refund obligations related to tariff policies
• US plans to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to reduce housing costs

Market Sentiment and Risk Factors

Nirmal Bang Securities technical research analysts expect precious metals prices on Indian bourses to trade range-bound to higher, citing record highs achieved as the US Justice Department threatened the Federal Reserve with criminal indictment. This development has revived concerns over Federal Reserve independence while intensifying protests in Iran have kept geopolitical tensions elevated.

The combination of domestic technical strength and global risk factors creates a compelling backdrop for gold prices, positioning both MCX and spot gold favorably in the current market environment.