Gold prices witnessed a substantial rally across India on January 12, 2026, marking a significant overnight surge that brought renewed attention to the precious metal. The price movement was driven by a combination of global macro factors including a weakening US dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions that increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Domestic Gold Price Performance

The domestic gold market experienced remarkable gains across all purity levels on January 12. The following table illustrates the current pricing structure and overnight changes:

For larger quantities, 24-carat gold per 100 grams reached ₹14,21,500, representing an overnight increase of ₹16,900 from the previous day's ₹14,04,600. Similarly, 22-carat gold per 100 grams jumped by ₹15,500 to ₹13,03,000, while 18-carat gold per 100 grams rose by ₹12,700 to ₹10,66,100.

MCX Gold Technical Analysis

Technical analysts maintain a bullish stance on MCX Gold, citing strong structural support and favorable chart patterns. Abhishek M Pelu, Research Analyst at Way2Wealth Brokers, highlighted that MCX Gold continues to remain in an uptrend with the overall structure staying bullish. The 10 and 20 DEMA lines have acted as strong support zones, with this trend expected to continue.

ICICI Securities research analysts project that MCX Gold February contracts are expected to rise towards ₹1,41,500 level as long as the metal stays above ₹1,39,000 level.

Global Gold Market Outlook

Spot gold is positioned for further gains, with analysts projecting a rise towards $4,620 level supported by US dollar weakness. ICICI Securities research analysts noted that demand for safe-haven assets may increase due to elevated geopolitical tensions, including unrest in Iran, escalation in fighting between Russia and Ukraine, and US signals regarding Greenland.

Additional factors supporting gold's bullish outlook include:

• Uncertainty over tariffs as the Supreme Court deferred on the legality of tariffs
• Potential government refund obligations related to tariff policies
• US plans to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to reduce housing costs

Market Sentiment and Risk Factors

Nirmal Bang Securities technical research analysts expect precious metals prices on Indian bourses to trade range-bound to higher, citing record highs achieved as the US Justice Department threatened the Federal Reserve with criminal indictment. This development has revived concerns over Federal Reserve independence while intensifying protests in Iran have kept geopolitical tensions elevated.

The combination of domestic technical strength and global risk factors creates a compelling backdrop for gold prices, positioning both MCX and spot gold favorably in the current market environment.

Gold and silver prices opened at fresh record highs on Monday, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and robust safe-haven demand. The precious metals rally reflects growing investor anxiety amid global volatility and economic uncertainty.

Record-Breaking Performance on MCX

The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) witnessed unprecedented levels for both precious metals during Monday's trading session.

The silver March futures contract registered a sharp gain of over ₹10,314, representing a 4% surge to reach the new lifetime high. Gold February futures demonstrated strong momentum with intraday gains of nearly ₹2,000 or 1.4%.

International Market Dynamics

Global precious metals markets mirrored the domestic surge, with gold prices soaring past the $4,600 per ounce mark internationally for the first time. Spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,469.49 per ounce as of 0203 GMT, after touching an all-time high of $4,600.33 earlier in the day. US gold futures for February delivery were up 2% at $4,591.10.

The rally was driven by rising geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts in the US. Adding to market volatility, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed on Sunday that the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal indictment over his Congressional testimony.

Geopolitical Factors Driving Safe-Haven Demand

Several geopolitical developments have contributed to the precious metals surge:

• Tensions in Iran with over 500 deaths reported amid civil unrest
• Iran's threats to strike US military bases following renewed warnings from President Trump
• US assertive stances including ousting Venezuela's President and expressing interest in acquiring Greenland
• A bill passed by the US administration to impose 500% tariffs on BRICS nations for importing Russian oil

"The rising aggression from the US President is fuelling uncertainty in financial markets and prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets like gold and silver," said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.

Trading Levels and Market Outlook

Market experts have identified key technical levels for traders on the MCX:

Jain noted that his firm's buy recommendation on gold remains active, with targets set at ₹1,40,000, ₹1,41,400 and ₹1,42,500. He recommends revising the stop loss to ₹1,37,700 for existing long positions. For silver, he suggests buying on dips in the ₹2,45,500 to ₹2,40,000 range, with a stop loss below ₹2,38,000, targeting levels of ₹2,55,500 and ₹2,58,000.

Physical Gold Prices Across Major Cities

Physical gold markets across major Indian cities reflected the overall upward trend:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was hovering around 98.96, down 0.17 points or 0.17% on Monday. "We're seeing very high volatility in precious metals," Jain noted, adding that "silver is likely to hold its support level near $65 per troy ounce, and gold may hold around $4,240 per ounce on a closing basis."