Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. (NYSE: XOM) shares climbed to fresh 52-week highs on Monday, fueled by a sharp jump in crude oil prices following renewed U.S. and Israeli threats against Iran.

President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu escalated rhetoric toward Tehran, while Iranian officials warned that any renewed military action would trigger a stronger response. This geopolitical tension raised concerns about further disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East.

Energy stocks and oil prices surge

Chevron shares hit $225.67 on Monday, marking a new 52-week high. Exxon Mobil climbed to $179.30, also setting a fresh 52-week high, according to Benzinga Pro data.

The moves came alongside a sharp rally in crude oil prices. Brent crude surged to an intraday high of $110.97 per barrel on Monday, its highest level since May 5, 2026. Traders assessed the risk that renewed U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran could threaten oil production and shipments from the region.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a particular focus for energy markets. The key waterway is critical to global oil flows, meaning any prolonged disruption could put additional upward pressure on crude prices and benefit major integrated oil producers such as Chevron and ExxonMobil.

Analysts warn of post-midterm escalation risk

Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, stated that there is a significant risk of escalation between the U.S. and Iran following the upcoming midterm elections in November. During an interview with CNBC, Croft noted that President Trump could be pushed by regional allies and Washington insiders to take a tougher stance against Tehran.

Croft identified a "finish-the-job camp" within the administration that believes the White House cannot leave the regime in Iran operating as it currently does. She pointed to ship strikes in the waterway and the engagement of Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis with Saudi Arabia as factors driving this sentiment.

Economist Peter Schiff echoed these concerns, warning that oil prices could soar following the end of the midterm elections. Schiff separately indicated that oil prices could move toward $150 per barrel after the November vote.

Strait of Hormuz transits aided by naval presence

Recent data from shipping tracker Kpler showed over 19 million barrels of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Croft acknowledged an increase in transits from August onward but warned that this flow is being aided by a "massive deployment" of U.S. naval presence in the region.

"By some accounts, 30% of U.S. naval assets are being used just on the blockade of Iran," Croft said, describing the situation as a "patchwork arrangement" to aid ship movement. She added that vessels are still being targeted, meaning the strait is not fully open for business, and Gulf nations have indicated that current measures are not sustainable.

Brett Erickson, Managing Principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, warned that more strikes from Iran on vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf could be coming after the Persian Gulf Strait Authority added 122 vessels to a sanctions list for non-compliance. Erickson had previously suggested that Iran’s strikes beyond the Strait of Hormuz signaled Tehran was "taking it easy" on Trump.

Threats extend to digital infrastructure

A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that Tehran could target undersea cable infrastructure. This follows comments from Iran’s Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who warned countries in the Gulf region against helping AI companies that aid U.S. military infrastructure.

Oil market supply risks and inventory data

Oil continues to carry a significant geopolitical risk premium as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz persists, ING Think analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said. They noted that a full unwind of that premium would likely require a U.S.-Iran agreement that gives markets confidence in sustained regional oil flows.

Meanwhile, International Energy Agency members agreed to release the remaining 100 million barrels from strategic reserves. U.S. crude inventories fell 8.56 million barrels last week, while distillate stocks dropped 2.53 million barrels to record seasonal lows, adding to signs of tightness in the oil market.

At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate futures contracts ending in December 2026 rose 2.30% to $100.81. Brent futures contracts ending in December gained 1.71% to $111.42. The United States Oil Fund ETF rose 2.39% to $164.72, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF gained 2.36% to $65.38 during pre-market trading.

However, the national average price of gas fell on Tuesday to $4.2786 per gallon, according to American Automobile Association data. Diesel saw a marginal uptick to $6.3199 per gallon.

US crude oil futures settled at $103.66 per barrel, rising $2.25 or 2.22% in the session.

Settlement details

The following table summarises the key data points from the session's settlement:

The settlement reflected a firm upward move in crude oil prices, with the contract closing well above its prior level by $2.25 per barrel.