Morgan Stanley Highlights Defence Spending Rise and Fiscal Focus in Budget 2026 Preview

0 min read     Updated on 01 Feb 2026, 09:24 AM
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Overview

Morgan Stanley expects Budget 2026 to feature meaningful defence spending increases and continued fiscal consolidation focus. The investment bank anticipates market volatility and upside risks post-budget, while highlighting government emphasis on capital expenditure targeting social sector spending and job creation initiatives.

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Morgan Stanley has shared its outlook on Budget 2026, highlighting several key themes that could shape the government's fiscal policy direction and market dynamics.

Defence Expenditure Focus

The investment bank anticipates a meaningful increase in defence expenditure in the upcoming budget. This expectation aligns with ongoing strategic priorities and could signal enhanced allocation towards military modernization and security infrastructure.

Fiscal Consolidation Remains Priority

Morgan Stanley identifies fiscal consolidation as a key focus area for Budget 2026. This suggests the government will continue balancing expenditure priorities while maintaining fiscal discipline and working towards sustainable debt management.

Market Impact Assessment

The firm warns that markets may experience volatility following the budget announcement, while also noting potential upside risks. This dual outlook reflects the complex market dynamics that typically accompany major fiscal policy announcements.

Capital Expenditure Strategy

Budget 2026 is expected to maintain strong emphasis on capital expenditure, with particular focus on:

  • Social sector spending initiatives
  • Job creation programs
  • Infrastructure development projects

This capex approach indicates continued government commitment to stimulating economic growth through targeted investments in key sectors that can generate employment opportunities and enhance social infrastructure.

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HDFC AMC CEO Navneet Munot Calls India 'Stock Picker's Paradise' Ahead of Budget 2026

2 min read     Updated on 24 Jan 2026, 10:10 AM
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Overview

HDFC AMC's Navneet Munot highlighted India's resilience and growth potential ahead of Budget 2026, praising policy continuity under Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's ninth consecutive budget. He noted domestic institutional investors have invested close to $250 billion over five years while foreign investors remained net sellers. Munot expects India to become the 'use-case capital' for AI applications and recommended fiscal incentives to channel investments from physical assets into capital markets, increased investment in PM Vishwakarma scheme, and higher AI and R&D allocation.

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HDFC Asset Management Company's Managing Director and CEO Navneet Munot has expressed strong confidence in India's structural growth story, describing the country as a "stock picker's paradise" ahead of Budget 2026. Speaking at the ET Budget Boardroom event in Mumbai, Munot emphasized the importance of policy continuity and sustained reforms in maintaining India's growth momentum.

Policy Continuity and Reform Momentum

Munot praised the government's consistent approach, highlighting that Budget 2026 marks the ninth consecutive budget presentation by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. He noted that the government has maintained reform momentum without waiting for Budget Day, implementing measures across GST simplification, labour codes, and other structural improvements.

The HDFC AMC chief emphasized that despite global uncertainties, India has continued growing at over 8%, demonstrating resilience in challenging international conditions. He particularly commended the government's decision to present the budget on a Sunday, viewing it as a symbol of the administration's commitment to working continuously for national development.

Market Performance and Investment Flows

Addressing market dynamics, Munot highlighted several key trends shaping India's investment landscape:

Market Indicator Performance Details
Nifty Returns Tenth consecutive year of positive returns
DII Investment Close to $250 billion invested over last five years
FII Position Net sellers during the same period
Smallcap Performance Underperformed due to earlier outperformance requiring valuation adjustment

Munot acknowledged that while Indian markets have underperformed some global markets due to the AI investment chase, he believes India will emerge as a significant beneficiary in the AI ecosystem. He positioned India as potentially becoming the "use-case capital of the world" for AI applications, creating substantial opportunities for corporate productivity enhancement and market expansion.

Sectoral Opportunities and Manufacturing Focus

The fund manager emphasized India's diverse investment opportunities across sectors, driven by an economy serving 1.4 billion consumers. He highlighted government initiatives supporting manufacturing growth:

  • Corporate tax reduction measures
  • Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme implementation
  • Logistics infrastructure improvements
  • Indigenization and procurement from Indian companies
  • Energy transition and EV adoption initiatives
  • Semiconductor manufacturing promotion

Munot stressed that these measures across manufacturing, energy transition, and new-age technologies position India to participate in multiple growth opportunities spanning various sectors.

Budget Expectations and Policy Recommendations

The HDFC AMC CEO outlined three key expectations from Budget 2026:

Priority Area Recommendation Details
Asset Monetization Introduce Section 54F-like incentives to channel investments from gold, silver, and land into long-term equity
Skill Development Substantially higher investment in PM Vishwakarma scheme to prepare for AI-driven labor market changes
Technology Investment Increased allocation for AI and R&D to establish India as a global leader

Munot particularly emphasized the potential of unlocking trillions of dollars currently locked in physical assets like gold and silver, noting that India imports large quantities of these metals annually. He suggested fiscal incentives could redirect this wealth toward capital markets, benefiting overall economic growth.

Future Growth Drivers

Looking ahead, Munot expressed confidence that continued government focus on capital expenditure, fiscal consolidation, and RBI support through liquidity measures and interest rate adjustments will collectively drive higher earnings growth. He emphasized that India's structural advantages, combined with ongoing reforms and the potential AI revolution, create a favorable environment for long-term investment opportunities across multiple sectors and market segments.

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