Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla has officially announced the schedule for the upcoming Union Budget presentation, confirming that the significant fiscal policy event will take place on February 1 at 11 AM.

Budget Presentation Details

The announcement by Speaker Birla provides clarity on the timing of this crucial parliamentary session. The Union Budget presentation represents one of the most important annual events in India's fiscal calendar, where the government outlines its financial priorities and policy directions.

Parliamentary Schedule Confirmation

The confirmation of the February 1 date and 11 AM timing ensures that all stakeholders, including parliamentarians, financial markets, and the public, can prepare for this significant fiscal policy announcement. The Speaker's announcement establishes the official parliamentary schedule for this key legislative event.

The budget presentation will provide insights into the government's fiscal strategy and economic priorities for the upcoming period, making this announcement particularly relevant for various sectors of the Indian economy.

Market expert Shubham Agarwal identifies January as the most intriguing month for traders, shaped by two critical forces: quarterly results and the Union Budget tabled on February 1st. Foreign Institutional Investors start positioning themselves after New Year, while traders across all levels begin placing bets on policy decisions based on available information and experience.

January Market Characteristics

During January, market trends become increasingly blurred as indices and stocks generate fake breakouts. Budget policy whispers create sector-specific optimism, triggering strong sector rotation where money flows rapidly from one sector to another. This creates sharp rallies in individual stocks but with weak follow-throughs, keeping markets predominantly range-bound.

Option Price Dynamics

The most significant change during budget season involves option pricing. Agarwal provides specific examples of this price escalation:

This expensive nature stems from higher expected volatility as market participants anticipate larger moves due to budget policy decisions. Retail traders buying both Calls and Puts create huge demand, making options costlier than normal periods.

Recommended Trading Strategies

Agarwal suggests capitalizing on erratic price movements through specific approaches. The primary recommendation involves long straddle strategies - buying ATM Call and Put options simultaneously. This approach benefits traders when options become expensive due to rising volatility or when markets make significant directional moves.

For directional traders, the expert emphasizes sticking to short-term trades and booking profits whenever they appear, rather than expecting large positional moves.

Risk Management Considerations

The strategy carries inherent risks, particularly around timing uncertainty. Traders cannot predict exactly when options will become expensive, requiring analysis of historical data to determine probable timing. The biggest risk involves daily option price decay (theta decay), where longer trade duration leads to premium erosion.

Key Risk Management Rules:

• Exit positions if volatility rise doesn't occur within 3 days
• Maintain suitable stop losses
• Avoid holding positions too long due to theta decay

Strategies to Avoid

Agarwal specifically warns against certain approaches during January:

• Pure short straddles and strangles: These carry unlimited risk potential, especially when options are already expensive
• Late option purchases: Buying ATM Call and Put options 1-2 days before budget announcement, when options have already peaked in price or sit near peak levels

These late straddle purchases typically produce negative outcomes as options have already incorporated expected volatility.

Smart Money Approach

The expert reveals that sophisticated traders don't attempt to forecast markets or predict policy decisions during budget periods. Instead, they focus on observing behavioral patterns, including how retail traders behave, how positioning builds throughout the month, and how volatility evolves. From these observations, they develop consistent, repeatable strategies that bet on behavior rather than outcomes, avoiding gambling on uncertain policy announcements.