Nifty 50 Tests Key Support at 25,450 as VIX Rises to 11.83, Bank Nifty Falls Below 60,000

The Nifty 50 remained under pressure for the sixth consecutive session, closing 109 points lower at 25,586 on January 19, marking a weak start to the week with increased volatility concerns as the VIX crossed key levels.

Technical Breakdown Signals Weakness

The benchmark index tested the recent swing low of 25,473 and approached the lower Bollinger Band during intraday trading amid above-average volumes. Significantly, the Nifty closed below its 100-day EMA for the first time since September 30, 2025, representing a notable technical deterioration.

Technical Indicator	Current Level	Status
Closing Price	25,586	Down 109 points
RSI	37.34	Declining
100-day EMA	Below	First time since Sep 30
Key Support	25,450	Critical level
Resistance Zone	25,700-25,800	Immediate hurdle

The index now trades below all key moving averages except the 200-day EMA, indicating broad-based technical weakness. Momentum indicators reinforced the bearish sentiment, with the Stochastic RSI showing a negative crossover and the MACD remaining below both the reference line and zero line with a weakening histogram.

Critical Support Levels Under Focus

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the 25,500–25,450 zone represents crucial support, coinciding with the recent swing low and historical demand areas. A decisive breakdown below 25,450 may accelerate selling pressure and open room for a short-term correction toward 25,300, where the next support cluster is positioned.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 25,700–25,730, which is expected to act as a near-term hurdle. A sustainable move above 25,730 would be essential to revive bullish momentum and enable a stronger recovery.

Options Data Suggests Range-Bound Movement

Weekly options data indicates the Nifty 50 is likely to trade within the 25,500–25,800 range in the short term. The maximum Call open interest was concentrated at the 25,800 strike, followed by 26,000 and 25,700 strikes, while the 25,500 strike held maximum Put open interest.

Options Activity	Strike Levels	Significance
Max Call OI	25,800, 26,000, 25,700	Resistance zones
Max Put OI	25,500, 25,400, 25,000	Support areas
Call Writing	25,600, 25,650, 25,550	Near-term resistance
Put Writing	25,500, 25,550, 25,400	Support reinforcement

Bank Nifty Slips Below 60,000 Mark

The Bank Nifty declined 204 points or 0.34% to close at 59,891, falling below the psychologically important 60,000 level. Despite the pressure, the banking index maintained its position above all key moving averages and the falling support trendline.

Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that the index continues to sustain above its key short-term 20-day SMA, maintaining a bullish undertone. However, fresh momentum would likely require the index to close above 60,000 and sustain this level for 2–3 sessions. Near-term support is positioned at 59,500, while resistance is seen at 60,400.

VIX Signals Increased Caution

The India VIX, commonly referred to as the fear index, jumped 4.00% to 11.83 after remaining range-bound over the previous three sessions. The volatility index tested its 200-day EMA and crossed the 12 level during intraday trading, signaling increased caution for market participants as bears may be gradually gaining strength.

Market Indicator	Current Level	Change	Implication
India VIX	11.83	+4.00%	Increased volatility
Nifty 50	25,586	-109 points	Bearish momentum
Bank Nifty	59,891	-204 points	Below 60,000

The combination of technical breakdown, increased volatility, and bearish momentum indicators suggests market participants should exercise caution in the near term, with key support levels becoming critical for determining the index's next directional move.

The Nifty 50 extended its losing streak for a second consecutive session, closing 66 points lower at 25,665 amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade deal. The benchmark index experienced significant volatility throughout the trading session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment and mixed global signals.

Market Performance and Volatility

The trading session began on a weak note with the Nifty 50 opening 84 points lower. However, the index demonstrated resilience in the first half, staging a notable recovery of 153 points from the day's low. This recovery proved short-lived as sentiment deteriorated in the latter half, with the index sliding 188 points from its intraday high of 25,791.

Market Metric:	Performance
Opening:	84 points lower
Intraday High:	25,791
Recovery from Low:	153 points
Decline from High:	188 points
Closing:	25,665 (-66 points)

Individual Stock and Sectoral Movements

Within the Nifty pack, stock performance was notably divergent. Tata Steel, NTPC, and Axis Bank emerged as the top gainers, while Asian Paints, TCS, and Tata Consumer faced selling pressure as the session's biggest laggards.

Sectoral trends presented a mixed picture across different industry segments:

Outperforming Sectors:

Metals
PSU Banks
Oil & Gas

Underperforming Sectors:

Realty
IT
Auto

The Nifty Bank index continued its outperformance for the second consecutive session, driven by strong buying interest in PSU bank stocks.

Broader Market Resilience

Despite the benchmark's decline, broader markets demonstrated relative strength and outperformed the main indices.

Index:	Performance
Nifty Midcap 100:	+0.29%
Nifty Smallcap 100:	+0.67%

Market Drivers and Global Factors

Investor caution stemmed from multiple factors, including expectations of a US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed during a previous administration. Global markets are positioned to react to key macroeconomic data releases, with US PPI and retail sales data expected, followed by UK GDP, US S&P Manufacturing PMI, and US jobless claims.

Upcoming Earnings Focus

Several companies are set to announce quarterly results in the next session, including Jio Financial, HDFC Life, 360One WAM, LTTS, and Angel One. Additionally, Infosys remains in focus after reporting December quarter earnings and raising its FY26 constant currency revenue growth guidance to 3.00% to 3.50%, compared to its earlier forecast of 2.00% to 3.00%.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

Market analysts provided varied perspectives on the technical outlook. Key resistance levels are identified around 25,900-26,000, with support levels at 25,600 and 25,500-25,400. The Nifty Bank index faces resistance at 60,000-60,100, with potential upside targets at 60,600 and 61,000, while support is seen at 59,300-59,200. Current consolidation appears to be occurring between 25,473 and 25,900, with a decisive breakout expected to determine the next directional move.