The Nifty 50 faced selling pressure on January 13, declining 58 points to close at 25,732 despite opening higher and testing the 25,900 resistance level. The index failed to attract follow-through buying interest and closed with above-average volumes, forming a long bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

The benchmark index continues to encounter significant resistance at the 25,900-26,000 zone, which technical analysts identify as a crucial hurdle for any sustained upward movement. Despite the decline, the index successfully defended the 100-day EMA for the third straight day and negated the lower high-lower low structure of the previous five sessions.

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The RSI stands at 41.16, sustaining below its signal line, while the MACD maintains a bearish crossover with a declining histogram. On the hourly chart, the index entered the momentum zone by rising above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, though it remained below short and medium-term moving averages on the daily timeframe.

Expert Analysis and Market Outlook

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted the emergence of buying interest near lower support levels as a positive signal. "The formation of a higher-bottom reversal pattern on the intraday (60-minute) chart indicates that the market could move up from here and surpass the hurdle of the 25,900–26,000 levels in the next few sessions," he stated.

Options Data and Market Sentiment

Weekly options data reinforces the significance of key levels, with maximum Call open interest positioned at the 26,000 strike, followed by 25,800 and 26,500 strikes. The data structure suggests:

• Call Writing Activity: Concentrated at 26,000, 25,800, and 25,900 strikes
• Put Open Interest: Maximum at 25,000 strike, followed by 25,700 and 25,500
• Put Writing: Focused at 25,000, 25,700, and 25,600 levels

Bank Nifty Performance

The Bank Nifty demonstrated relative strength, extending gains for the second consecutive session and closing 128 points higher at 59,579. The banking index successfully closed above the 20-day EMA and 20-day SMA, though it formed a bearish candle due to profit-booking at higher levels.

Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, emphasized the importance of the 20-day SMA as strong support. "If the index sustains above the 20-day SMA for the next 2–3 sessions, a move towards 60,200 can be expected," he noted.

Volatility and Risk Factors

India VIX, the market's fear gauge, remained at elevated levels despite correcting 1.50% to close at 11.20. The elevated volatility index continues to signal caution for market participants, with experts expecting further rise to the 12-13 range ahead of the Union Budget. This elevated volatility environment suggests continued uncertainty and potential for sharp price movements in either direction.

Indian equity markets demonstrated remarkable resilience on Monday, staging a strong recovery from early losses to close in positive territory. The Nifty 50 ended at 25,790.25, gaining 0.42%, while the Sensex closed at 83,878.17, up 0.36%. The turnaround was attributed to positive developments in India-US trade relations and record-breaking performance in precious metals.

India-US Trade Relations Boost Market Sentiment

Market sentiment received a significant boost following optimistic comments from US Ambassador Sergio Gor. The newly appointed ambassador stated that no nation is as crucial to the United States as India, emphasizing that both countries are actively working to solidify a trade agreement. These remarks came just hours after he assumed his role and are viewed as a positive outreach effort by the Trump administration, which has recently applied pressure on India regarding tariffs and H1B visas.

Precious Metals Hit Record Highs

Gold and silver prices on MCX achieved record highs on Monday, tracking a rally in international bullion prices driven by safe-haven demand. The surge came amid uncertainty over a Trump administration criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Market Outlook and Technical Analysis

Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking noted that markets will respond to earnings reports from major IT companies TCS and HCL Tech during early trading on Tuesday. Geopolitical events and trade discussions will also remain important factors. Given the current backdrop of mixed signals and high volatility, experts recommend adopting a selective, stock-specific strategy with disciplined risk management.

Rupak De from LKP Securities observed that significant purchasing at Monday's low prompted a quick market recovery. The daily chart shows the index has established a piercing line pattern, indicating potential bullish reversal after several days of decline. However, the Nifty 50 faces resistance in the 26,000-26,100 range, with immediate support positioned at 25,650.

Expert Stock Recommendations

Market experts have identified eight stocks for intraday trading opportunities, providing specific entry points, targets, and stop-loss levels:

Sumeet Bagadia's Picks (Choice Broking)

Ganesh Dongre's Recommendations (Anand Rathi)

Shiju Koothupalakkal's Selections (Prabhudas Lilladher)

The technical analysis across these recommendations highlights various bullish patterns, support level bounces, and momentum indicators suggesting potential upside moves in the near term.