Meesho shares experienced a significant decline on January 12, 2026, hitting the 5% lower circuit at ₹163.85 per share, down from the previous close of ₹170.60. The e-commerce platform's stock touched a low of ₹162.10 during the trading session, reflecting continued market volatility following the company's recent listing performance. With a current market capitalisation of ₹73,947 crores, the decline comes amid two key developments affecting investor sentiment.

Lock-in Period Expiry Impact

The primary catalyst for today's decline was the recent expiry of Meesho's one-month shareholder lock-in period. This development has made approximately 109.9 million shares available for trading in the market, representing around 2% of the company's total equity. While the lock-in expiry does not guarantee immediate selling pressure, it provides existing shareholders with the flexibility to trade their holdings, contributing to increased market supply.

BofA Securities Coverage Initiation

BofA Securities has officially initiated coverage on Meesho with a 'Neutral' rating and established a target price of ₹190 per share. This target represents a potential upside of approximately 16% from current trading levels. The brokerage highlighted Meesho's strategic positioning to capitalize on India's value-focused mass market segment, which remains a significant growth opportunity in the country's expanding e-commerce landscape.

The investment bank projects robust growth metrics for the company, with net merchandise value (NMV) expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% between FY26 and FY29. Additionally, BofA forecasts a notable improvement in operational efficiency, with adjusted EBITDA projected to turn positive at 3% by FY29, compared to an expected negative 3% in FY26.

Strategic Growth Opportunities

BofA identified several strategic factors that could support Meesho's future expansion. The company is well-positioned to gain additional market share in India's competitive e-commerce space through its focus on value-conscious consumers. The brokerage also highlighted potential growth drivers including the scaling of fintech offerings to enhance customer and seller services, and expansion into the grocery segment, which represents a rapidly growing category in Indian e-commerce.

Recent Financial Performance

As of September 30, 2025, Meesho reported total income of ₹5,857.70 crores, demonstrating the scale of its operations. The company showed signs of improved cost management with losses narrowing to ₹700.70 crores during the period. However, EBITDA losses stood at ₹551.90 crores, indicating continued near-term operating challenges. Total assets declined to ₹6,640.40 crores from ₹7,226.10 crores in March 2025.

The combination of lock-in period expiry and analyst coverage initiation has created a mixed sentiment around Meesho's stock. While the immediate trading pressure reflects typical post-listing adjustments, the positive long-term projections from BofA suggest underlying business strength in India's evolving e-commerce market.

Meesho shares extended their decline on Monday, January 12, falling 3% as the newly-listed e-commerce company faced continued market volatility. The stock traded at ₹165.50, reflecting investor caution following mixed trading sessions in recent days.

BofA Securities Initiates Coverage

BofA Securities launched coverage of Meesho with a neutral rating and established a price target of ₹190 per share. The brokerage highlighted the company's strategic positioning in the value-focused mass market segment as a key strength.

Growth Projections and Financial Outlook

BofA Securities presented optimistic projections for Meesho's operational metrics. The brokerage expects the company's net merchandise value (NMV) to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% between FY26 and FY29.

The financial trajectory shows significant improvement potential, with adjusted EBITDA margin projected to shift from negative 3% in FY26 to positive 3% by FY29. This turnaround reflects the company's path toward profitability as it scales operations.

Market Position and Growth Drivers

BofA Securities identified several key tailwinds supporting Meesho's growth prospects:

• Market Share Expansion: Opportunities to capture larger portions of the e-commerce market
• Fintech Business Scale-up: Growth potential in financial services offerings
• Grocery Segment Entry: Expansion into the grocery delivery market

The brokerage noted that current valuation levels appropriately reflect the company's strong fundamental position in the competitive e-commerce landscape.

Share Unlock and Analyst Sentiment

Meesho recently experienced the expiry of its one-month shareholder lock-in period, making approximately 109.9 million shares eligible for trading. These shares represent nearly 2% of the company's outstanding equity, though their availability doesn't guarantee immediate market sales.

Analyst coverage remains mixed but generally positive, with three of five analysts maintaining buy ratings, while one each assigned hold and sell recommendations.

Stock Performance Analysis

Despite recent volatility, Meesho shares continue trading substantially above their IPO price of ₹111, maintaining approximately 50% gains for investors who participated in the initial offering. However, the stock has retreated about 35% from its post-listing peak of ₹254 and declined close to 9% in 2026.