Investment strategist Dr. V K Vijayakumar warns against attempting to time the market in today's volatile environment, emphasizing the traditional wisdom of spending time in the market rather than timing it. This advice gains particular relevance amid the current VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world shaped by Trump administration policies and their far-reaching geoeconomic and geopolitical consequences.

The expert notes how the US-led Western world's post-Second World War leadership role, which facilitated global economic growth and development, now faces disruption from unconventional and uncertain policies under President Trump's administration.

Trump Policy Impact on Global Markets

The first major disruption during Trump 2.0 emerged from reciprocal tariffs announced in April 2025. While global stock markets initially reacted negatively, most countries subsequently entered bilateral trade agreements with the US, averting a potential trade war.

The weaponization of tariffs has become integral to Trump administration policy. Recent developments include Trump's declaration of 'Greenland tariffs' targeting eight European countries opposing the Greenland annexation plan, though fears of a US-Europe trade war subsequently diminished.

India's Economic Performance Analysis

India demonstrated impressive post-COVID economic performance, achieving remarkable growth rates that established it as the world's fastest-growing large economy.

Despite this robust economic expansion, a significant challenge emerged in corporate earnings performance. The earnings growth trajectory showed marked deterioration following initial post-pandemic recovery.

Nominal Growth and Market Outlook

The low inflation environment impacted nominal GDP growth significantly. FY26 nominal growth reached an estimated 8.1%, falling short of Budget estimates of 10.1%. This compressed nominal growth contributed to weaker earnings performance in FY26.

Vijayakumar expects improvement in FY27 as inflation returns to normal levels, potentially boosting both nominal GDP growth and corporate earnings growth, which could facilitate a moderate market rally.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

The investment strategist emphasizes maintaining investment discipline despite heightened volatility from geopolitical developments. Key recommendations include:

• Stay invested: Continue existing investment positions
• Continue investing: Maintain regular investment schedules
• Focus on fundamentals: Prioritize economic growth and corporate earnings over short-term noise

Vijayakumar concludes that while geopolitical noise will continue impacting markets and causing volatility, stock markets historically demonstrate resilience in overcoming various challenges. He emphasizes that personalities and events remain temporary, while economies and markets endure permanently.

The debate between market timing and time in market has long captivated investors, particularly during periods of market volatility. Recent comprehensive analyses by multiple fund houses provide compelling evidence that obsessing over entry points often matters far less than maintaining consistent investment discipline over extended periods.

DSP Mutual Fund Analysis: Narrow Return Differentials

DSP Mutual Fund's comprehensive study examined seven-year rolling SIP returns on the Nifty 500 Index TRI between April 1, 2005, and November 30, 2025. The analysis revealed remarkably consistent outcomes regardless of entry timing:

The study utilized median returns rather than averages to avoid distortion from outliers, providing a more accurate representation of typical investor experiences. Interestingly, returns after corrections were lower largely because markets tend to mean revert after sharp falls, with SIPs initiated during post-recovery phases initially purchasing units at higher levels.

Capitalmind's Long-Term Perspective

Capitalmind Mutual Fund conducted an extensive analysis spanning January 1995 to August 2025, examining three investor archetypes who invested ₹1.00 lakh annually in the Nifty 500 Index with dividends reinvested:

Remarkably, among 10,000 investors who selected random investment days annually, 90% of returns fell within a narrow 14.70-15.30% range, further demonstrating the limited impact of timing on long-term outcomes.

Cost of Missing Market Upswings

PGIM India Mutual Fund's analysis covering September 4, 2001, to December 31, 2025, highlighted the significant cost of attempting to time markets. The data revealed the dramatic impact of missing the market's best performing days:

Abhishek Tiwari, Chief Executive Officer of PGIM India Mutual Fund, emphasized that "it is not possible for investors to know when and how these best months will play out. Hence, investors can capture the best days by keeping a longer investment horizon."

Systematic Investment Plans: The Averaging Advantage

Dhirendra Kumar, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Value Research, explained the mechanics of SIP effectiveness: "SIPs are one of the simplest ways to handle equity volatility because they put time in the market to work, instead of forcing you to get timing right. Think of them like a recurring deposit in a market-linked product: you keep investing through ups and downs, automatically buying more when markets are weak and less when they're expensive."

Additional data from FundsIndia revealed that the Nifty 50 delivered returns exceeding 12% on a seven-year rolling basis nearly 70% of the time since its inception in June 1999, as of November 30, 2025.

Portfolio Construction and Rebalancing

Kaustubh Belapurkar, Director – Manager Research at Morningstar India, advocates for consistent investment discipline: "If an investor believes they have identified a capable fund manager, the sensible approach is to invest steadily—either through staggered purchases or systematic investment plans—without getting overly influenced by short-term price movements."

Kavitha Menon, Founder of Probitus Wealth, highlighted the importance of periodic rebalancing: "The rebalancing exercise indirectly increases exposure to asset classes that have undergone a correction while trimming allocations to those that have seen sharp rallies. This process instils discipline and keeps the portfolio aligned with the investor's long-term goals and risk profile."

The comprehensive data across multiple time periods and market cycles consistently demonstrates that building diversified portfolios and maintaining investment discipline over extended periods typically outperforms attempts at market timing, regardless of entry point volatility.