Multi-family office Client Associates has set a target of 93,918 for the BSE Sensex by December 2026, projecting a 10.00% year-on-year growth amid concerns over elevated market valuations and earnings moderation. The firm's measured outlook reflects a cautious stance on equity markets, emphasizing the need for calibrated investment approaches in the current environment.

Market Outlook and Valuation Concerns

Client Associates' projection is anchored in comprehensive intrinsic value assessments and multi-factor analytical frameworks. The firm highlights that while long-term growth prospects for Indian equities remain intact, current elevated valuations and anticipated near-term earnings growth moderation warrant careful consideration in investment strategies.

The assessment expects earnings growth for Sensex companies to remain subdued initially, followed by recovery over the medium term. This recovery is anticipated to be driven by improving macroeconomic conditions and accommodative monetary policy measures.

Economic Growth and Domestic Strength

Client Associates has revised India's FY26 GDP growth projection upward to 6.80%, exceeding earlier expectations despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This growth trajectory is expected to translate into sustained domestic demand, enhanced corporate revenue visibility, and improved earnings potential across consumption-led sectors.

High-frequency economic indicators, including manufacturing and services PMIs, continue to remain in expansionary territory. GST collections reflect underlying economic activity resilience, supporting the firm's optimistic growth outlook for the domestic economy.

Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics

Nitin Agarwal, Head of Investment Research at Client Associates, suggests that equity markets in 2026 will likely be driven by selective opportunities anchored in fundamentals rather than broad-based rallies. The firm emphasizes that India's domestic macro strength and improving earnings outlook remain supportive factors.

Liquidity conditions are expected to remain supportive, with domestic institutional investors playing an increasingly important role in market stabilization. Strong and sustained SIP inflows have helped offset periods of foreign portfolio outflows, and renewed institutional participation could improve market depth while reducing volatility during global risk-off phases.

Commodities and Precious Metals Strategy

Client Associates identifies gold and silver as key investment themes for 2026, recommending these precious metals as strategic portfolio allocations. The firm notes that precious metals demonstrated strong performance in 2025, with specific returns highlighting their portfolio diversification benefits.

Gold demand increased meaningfully, driven by central bank purchases and reinforcing its role as a strategic portfolio diversifier. Silver prices experienced sharp increases amid global supply concerns and geopolitical developments. However, Client Associates maintains an underweight position on silver and advises against fresh positions at current levels, citing unfavorable risk-reward balance.

Company Background and Methodology

Client Associates is a multi-family office founded by Rohit Sarin and Himanshu Kohli, with over two decades of industry experience. The firm manages over $7.00 billion in assets and provides advisory services to high net worth individuals and ultra-high net worth individuals across India, maintaining presence in 10 major cities. The firm's projections utilize intrinsic value assessments combined with comprehensive multi-factor analytical frameworks to evaluate market opportunities and risks.

A recent analysis by Client Associates, a wealth management firm overseeing more than $7.00 billion in assets, has revealed that the much-hyped new-age technology IPOs have largely failed to live up to their promise for long-term investors. The study, which examined 25 tech-led initial public offerings (IPOs), found that only 36% of investors managed to outperform the BSE 500 index in the long run.

Initial Gains vs. Sustained Performance

The report highlighted a stark contrast between initial listing gains and long-term performance:

• 68% of IPO investors enjoyed initial listing gains
• Average listing day returns stood at an impressive 24.15%
• However, only about one-third of these investments maintained their outperformance over time

Post-IPO Investor Struggles

Investors who entered after the IPO fared even worse:

• Only 32% of post-IPO investors generated long-term alpha
• The retail-heavy IPO segment was particularly weak
• Post-IPO investors experienced an average negative alpha of 25.00%

Pre-IPO Investments: A Mixed Bag

Pre-IPO participants saw polarized results:

• Ixigo delivered stellar returns of 89.29%
• Zaggle followed with 62.47% gains
• On the flip side, Ola Electric declined by over 60.00%

Company-Specific Performances

The analysis revealed significant disparities in company performances:

• Outperformers: Zomato and PolicyBazaar
• Underperformers: Paytm and Mobikwik lagged significantly behind expectations

Exit Strategy Insights

The report offered a valuable insight for investors:

• Six-month lock-in expiries often provided optimal exit opportunities
• This was particularly true for companies with clear monetization models

Implications for Investors

This analysis serves as a cautionary tale for investors excited by the hype surrounding new-age tech IPOs. While initial gains can be attractive, they don't guarantee long-term value creation. Investors should:

1. Conduct thorough due diligence on business models and monetization strategies
2. Be prepared for high volatility in this segment
3. Consider exit strategies, potentially around lock-in expiry periods
4. Diversify investments to mitigate risks associated with individual stock performances

As the Indian IPO market continues to evolve, particularly in the tech sector, investors must balance the allure of potentially high returns with the reality of sustained value creation in an increasingly competitive landscape.