Adani Power Shares Jump 7% as Brokerages Highlight Multi-Year Earnings Upcycle
Adani Power shares surged 7.1% to ₹153.20 following positive brokerage reports highlighting multi-year earnings growth potential. Antique Stock Broking initiated coverage noting 2.3x capacity expansion from 18.15 GW to 41.9 GW by FY33E, while the company secured 70% market share in state-led thermal PPA awards. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to ₹185 from ₹163.60, forecasting 20% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-33, supported by recent PPA wins of 6.7 GW and India's structural power demand growth of 6% CAGR.

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Adani Power shares climbed 7.1% on Thursday, reaching ₹153.20 on the BSE, as investors assessed the company's long-term growth prospects amid rising baseload power demand expectations and improving earnings visibility highlighted in recent brokerage reports.
Antique Initiates Coverage with Multi-Year Growth Outlook
Antique Stock Broking initiated coverage on Adani Power, describing the company as entering a "multi-year earnings upcycle." The brokerage highlighted the company's transformation from a stressed thermal independent power producer to India's most efficient private baseload operator.
| Growth Parameter: | Details |
|---|---|
| Current Capacity (FY25): | 18.15 GW |
| Target Capacity (FY33E): | 41.9 GW |
| Expansion Multiple: | 2.3x |
| India Power Demand CAGR (FY22-32E): | 6% |
Antique pointed to India's structural power demand upcycle, driven by electric vehicles, data centers, artificial intelligence workloads, and manufacturing growth. The brokerage noted this environment continues to support coal-based generation's role in meeting peak and non-solar demand.
Strong PPA Performance Enhances Revenue Visibility
Adani Power has demonstrated exceptional performance in securing power purchase agreements, winning a dominant share of state-led thermal PPA awards.
| PPA Metrics: | Performance |
|---|---|
| Total PPAs Awarded: | 17.7 GW |
| Adani Power's Share: | 12.4 GW |
| Market Share: | 70% |
| Operational Capacity Under PPAs: | 90% |
| Total Portfolio Under PPAs/LOIs: | 67% of 41.9 GW |
Antique emphasized that new PPAs carry higher fixed charges than legacy contracts, improving fixed-cost recovery and earnings predictability. The company's fuel security is supported by SHAKTI-linked fuel supply agreements, while captive coal output is expected to support merchant capacity.
Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on Strong Earnings Visibility
Morgan Stanley updated its outlook on Adani Power, raising the price target to ₹185 from ₹163.60 while maintaining its Overweight rating. The brokerage noted the company has won PPAs and letters of award for approximately 6.7 GW over the past three months, bringing the total PPA bid pipeline to around 22 GW.
| Morgan Stanley Forecasts: | Details |
|---|---|
| EBITDA CAGR (FY25-33): | 20% |
| New Price Target: | ₹185 |
| Previous Price Target: | ₹163.60 |
| Rating: | Overweight |
Morgan Stanley lowered its estimate of merchant capacity exposure, reflecting stronger earnings visibility from recent PPA wins and operational performance improvements.
Massive Expansion Pipeline Supports Growth Strategy
Adani Power is executing India's largest private-sector thermal expansion program, with significant capacity under construction.
| Expansion Details: | Specifications |
|---|---|
| Capacity Under Construction: | 23.72 GW |
| Total Capex Pipeline: | ₹2,000 billion |
| Internal Funding: | 60% of capex |
| Net Debt to EBITDA Target (FY32E): | Below 1x |
Antique highlighted the company's brownfield-led expansion strategy, which reduces capital intensity and execution timelines compared to public-sector peers. Approximately 60% of the capex pipeline is expected to be funded through internal accruals, supporting deleveraging efforts.
Both brokerages emphasized that coal-fired generation is expected to remain central to India's grid stability and peak-hour reliability over the coming decade, positioning Adani Power as a key beneficiary of tightening baseload requirements.












































