Barclays maintains Overweight on Trip.com Group, lowers target to $60

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Reviewed by
Radhika SScanX News Team
Key Highlights

Barclays analyst Jiong Shao maintained an Overweight rating on Trip.com Group, lowering the price target to $60 from $75. The adjustment reflects a revised valuation outlook while signaling continued confidence in the company's performance potential.

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Barclays analyst Jiong Shao has maintained an Overweight rating on Trip.com Group while lowering the price target to $60 from $75. The adjustment reflects a revised valuation outlook for the NASDAQ-listed travel services company.

The rating retention indicates continued confidence in the company's performance potential despite the reduced price target. Trip.com Group trades under the ticker symbol TCOM.

Rating and Price Target Details

The following table outlines the revised analyst metrics:

Metric Value
Rating Overweight
Previous Price Target $75
New Price Target $60

The firm's decision to maintain the Overweight stance suggests that the underlying business fundamentals remain favorable relative to the broader market.

What specific factors led to the $15 reduction in the price target despite the maintained Overweight rating?

How might Trip.com's upcoming earnings report influence Barclays' valuation outlook?

What are the potential risks or opportunities in the travel sector that could impact Trip.com's performance?

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Trip.com targets 200m inbound travelers as Q1 revenue rises 17%

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Reviewed by
Anirudha BScanX News Team
Key Highlights

Trip.com Group Limited reported Q1 2026 net revenue of RMB 16.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with net income of RMB 2.5 billion. International gross bookings rose 65%, and inbound bookings surged 90%. The company targets 200 million inbound travelers over five years and is investing in AI to improve efficiency. For Q2 2026, revenue growth is projected at 3-8% due to macro headwinds and compliance adjustments. The company is also cooperating with a SAMR investigation regarding potential anti-monopoly violations.

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Trip.com Group Limited reported unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2026, demonstrating solid growth driven by resilient travel demand. Total net revenues increased by 17% year-over-year to RMB 16.2 billion. The company's international business sustained robust growth, with gross bookings on the international platform increasing by approximately 65% year-over-year and inbound travel bookings surging by approximately 90%. Net income for the quarter was RMB 2.5 billion, compared to RMB 4.3 billion in the same period of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA rose to RMB 4.8 billion from RMB 4.2 billion a year earlier.

Financial Performance

Revenue growth was broad-based across business segments. Accommodation reservation revenue rose 17% year-over-year to RMB 6.5 billion, while transportation ticketing revenue increased 12% to RMB 6.1 billion. Packaged-tour revenue grew 19% to RMB 1.1 billion, and corporate travel revenue increased 20% to RMB 690 million. Cost of revenue increased by 23% to RMB 3.3 billion, representing 21% of total net revenues.

Metric Q1 2026 (RMB million) Q1 2025 (RMB million) Change
Total Net Revenues 16,208 13,830 17%
Net Income 2,525 4,314 -41%
Adjusted EBITDA 4,830 4,247 14%

Strategic Initiatives and AI Integration

Management emphasized a strategic focus on inbound travel, aiming to attract 200 million inbound travelers over the next five years. This goal leverages favorable policies, such as visa-free access for over 80 countries, and extensive marketing initiatives. In Q1 2026, the company served approximately 7 million inbound travelers and engaged over 110,000 local partners in inbound-related services. Additionally, Trip.com is integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) into its operations to improve efficiency and customer experiences. The company is deploying AI agents to support travelers and suppliers, utilizing automated content tools and AI-driven customer service systems to enhance responsiveness and reduce operational burdens.

Operational Highlights and Outlook

The company noted that inbound travel continues to gain momentum, contributing to local economic development. Asia remained the largest source of inbound travelers, while visitors from Europe and the US grew rapidly. For the second quarter of 2026, Trip.com Group expects total net revenue growth to decelerate to approximately 3%–8%, citing macro headwinds such as elevated energy pricing and geopolitical volatility alongside operational adjustments for compliance frameworks. The company projects Q2 sales of $2.137 billion-$2.241 billion, compared to the analyst consensus estimate of $2.500 billion.

Regulatory Developments

In January 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) commenced an investigation into whether the Company has abused a dominant market position pursuant to the PRC Anti-Monopoly Law. Trip.com Group stated it is fully cooperating with the SAMR by providing supplementary information and documentation. The company noted it cannot predict the timing, outcome, or consequences of the investigation, which may result in fines or changes to business practices.

How will the ongoing SAMR antitrust investigation influence Trip.com's strategic investments and partnership expansions over the next year?

Can AI integration sufficiently offset the projected revenue deceleration and rising operational costs in the face of macro headwinds?

What specific operational adjustments are being made to meet new compliance frameworks, and how will they impact Q2 profitability?

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