Hasbro Inc. possesses a 41% stock upside potential that the market has yet to fully recognize, according to BNP Paribas. This assessment follows an industry expert event involving hobby-store owner Greg May, highlighting the strength of Magic: The Gathering as a key growth driver. The bank suggests that Hasbro’s valuation resembles that of a traditional toy maker, failing to account for the company’s transition toward higher-margin gaming segments.

The Magic Flywheel Is Still Working

Analyst Xian Siew reports that player engagement remains robust, with the Magic ecosystem consistently attracting new players. A central component of this expansion is the "Universes Beyond" strategy, which integrates Magic cards based on popular franchises such as Marvel and The Lord of the Rings. These collaborations act as an entry point for new customers, many of whom remain engaged with future releases.

Siew estimates that 20% to 30% of Universes Beyond buyers continue to participate in the Magic ecosystem for subsequent releases. This retention creates a flywheel effect, supporting demand for both collaboration-themed sets and traditional Magic releases as the player base expands.

Why BNP Sees More Upside

The bullish outlook from BNP Paribas is grounded not only in revenue growth but also in profitability. Siew estimates that incremental gross margins on Magic products are approximately 85%. This high margin profile implies that additional sales will have a significant impact on earnings, a factor expected to drive growth in both 2026 and 2027.

Despite the ongoing transition away from slower-growing traditional toy categories, Hasbro’s stock currently trades at roughly 10 times EBITDA. BNP Paribas believes this valuation does not accurately reflect the company’s evolving business mix. Consequently, the firm has maintained a $117 price target on the shares, representing roughly 41% upside from recent levels.

The Runway May Be Longer Than Investors Think

While some hobby-store operators have expressed caution regarding the upcoming Marvel Super Heroes release, enthusiasm remains high for future collaborations. The Hobbit set is scheduled for release next year, and speculation persists within the Magic community about additional Marvel-themed releases. Potential future collaborations involving franchises such as X-Men could further extend the growth runway.

For investors, the significance of Magic: The Gathering as a profit engine is becoming increasingly clear. According to BNP Paribas, the market has not yet fully adjusted to this reality, leaving the stock undervalued relative to its earnings potential.

Wells Fargo analyst Anthony Bonadio has adjusted the price target for Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) to $85, down from the previous $92, while maintaining an Equal-Weight rating on the stock. The revision reflects a reassessment of the company's valuation and market position.

Rating and Price Action

The Equal-Weight rating suggests that Hasbro's stock is expected to perform in line with the broader market or sector average. The reduction in the price target indicates a more conservative outlook on the company's near-term share price appreciation.

Analyst Perspective

Anthony Bonadio's coverage focuses on balancing the company's fundamental strengths against current market dynamics. The lowered target price may account for factors such as consumer spending trends, competitive pressures, or currency fluctuations affecting Hasbro's global operations.