Uber Technologies and Alphabet Inc.-backed Waymo have ended their robotaxi partnership in Phoenix, Arizona, with Uber reportedly planning to announce a new partner in the city. The dissolution of the Phoenix partnership affects a key market for robotaxi operations, where Waymo vehicles were also previously used for food deliveries. This development comes as BTIG analyst Jake Fuller has cautioned that Uber's robotaxi vision could take years to materialize, with Waymo continuing to dominate the U.S. market.

Market Impact and Fleet Estimates

The end of the partnership shifts the competitive landscape for autonomous vehicle rides. Prior to this development, BTIG estimated that roughly 4,100 robotaxis were providing paid rides across 11 U.S. cities. Approximately 3,800 of those vehicles belonged to Waymo, while only about 300 were spread across five competing AV platforms.

The firm had estimated around 1,000 autonomous vehicles were available through the Uber app in the U.S., with roughly 800 of those being Waymo vehicles. This left Uber with only about 200 exclusive non-Waymo robotaxis, operating through Avride in Dallas and Motional in Las Vegas.

Strategic Shifts and New Partnerships

According to a Bloomberg report, Waymo's food delivery partnership with Uber ended in May last year, while the robotaxi ride-hailing partnership ended in May this year. Waymo has since signed an agreement with DoorDash Inc. and a public transit deal with Via Transportation Inc. Uber has been expanding its robotaxi partnerships with various companies, including Lucid Group Inc., though BTIG notes these moves have not yet shifted investor sentiment meaningfully.

Long-Term Outlook and Valuation

BTIG has maintained a Buy rating on Uber with a price target of $100, based on a 15-times multiple of its 2027 EBITDA estimate. The brokerage sees a long-term path for a fragmented autonomous vehicle market, with multiple platforms using Uber as a demand aggregator. However, the firm noted that this shift could take years, and investors likely need to see other AV platforms scale before giving the company more credit for its U.S. rideshare business.

Technical Analysis

Uber stock recently traded about 4.9% above its 20-day simple moving average of $71.43 and roughly 2% above its 50-day SMA of $73.45. However, shares remain about 8.1% below the 200-day SMA of $81.56. Key resistance sits near $81, close to the 200-day SMA, while support is around $69, above the 52-week low of $67.19.

Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a last-minute legislative agreement between Uber Technologies Inc and California trial attorneys, ending a potential ballot measure showdown that involved over $50 million in combined advertising spending. The agreement, embodied in SB 623, introduces new safety requirements for ride-hailing companies while tightening rules on medical lien practices that Uber says inflate car crash lawsuit payouts and reduce victims' settlements. Both Uber and the Consumer Attorneys of California agreed to withdraw their competing November ballot initiatives following the signature.

Safety and Liability Provisions

Under the terms of the deal, Uber will enhance driver background checks and adopt additional safety standards. Trial attorneys indicated these measures could help prevent sexual assaults and other misconduct by ensuring drivers do not have histories of DUIs, child abuse convictions, sexual battery, or violent felonies. While the legislation aims to curb unethical practices by attorneys and doctors, it does not impose firm caps on attorneys' fees in car crash lawsuits, a limit Uber had initially sought. The agreement specifically addresses cases involving Uber and Lyft, whereas the previously proposed ballot measure would have impacted all motor vehicle cases.

Financial Context and Strategic Shift

Consumer Watchdog previously reported that Uber was stockpiling $12 billion in a self-funded insurance reserve, suggesting the company sought to remove liability for car crashes to allocate funds toward a robotaxi rollout. The organization criticized Uber for citing high insurance costs to seek limited liability while simultaneously overcharging itself to build the reserve. Despite the new legislation, Uber retains liability for robotaxis and any resulting injuries or deaths.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi stated the company is evolving from a ride-hailing platform reliant on human drivers into an open marketplace combining gig workers with third-party autonomous vehicle fleets. Rather than building its own self-driving cars, Uber is pursuing a strategy to integrate robotaxis from multiple automakers and technology partners. The California Assembly and Senate overwhelmingly approved the bill before the deadline to remove the competing measures from the November election.