President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he personally believes Iran was responsible for the alleged terrorist attack aboard Flydubai flight FZ1073. The incident, which occurred last Wednesday, involved a co-pilot allegedly attacking the captain with an emergency crash axe inside the cockpit.

The Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft reportedly descended 17,400 feet in less than two minutes during the event. Trump made the accusation while speaking to the press, answering a question about Tehran's potential involvement by saying, "I do, I personally do," before walking away. This aligns with his comments from October 1, where he hinted at Iranian involvement "based on what I'm hearing."

Vance defers to intelligence agencies

Vice President JD Vance adopted a more cautious stance when asked about the same incident on Monday. He stated that he would defer to CIA Director John Ratcliffe for any official comments regarding Iran's role in the event. Vance emphasized that while the matter is under review, he has not yet encountered definitive evidence linking Tehran to the attack.

"I wouldn't say I've seen anything conclusive just yet," Vance said. He added that he did not want to get ahead of any announcements from intelligence officials.

Regional tensions and economic impact

The incident occurs amidst escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. Iran's Security Chief Mohsen Rezaee warned that the country is facing one of its "most difficult periods" as the Rial continues to fall amid sanctions and economic restrictions imposed by the U.S. These measures are part of "Operation Economic Outcast," touted by Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Despite the geopolitical strain, data from ship tracker Kpler indicates that oil flows out of the Middle East, including through the Strait of Hormuz, have exceeded pre-war levels. However, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) reported that attacks on vessels have also increased.

The divergence between the President's assertion and the Vice President's caution highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the investigation. While Trump relies on informal information, Vance points to the absence of verified intelligence findings.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted the resignation of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad on Monday, citing personal reasons. The departure coincides with a parliamentary inquiry into nearly $2 billion in unpaid oil revenues owed to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).

Rial collapse and economic contraction

The political shift occurs as Iran’s currency faces severe depreciation. The rial has fallen more than 10% in the past month and over 50% in the past year. At the time of reporting, one US dollar was worth approximately 1,741,320 Iranian rials.

Macroeconomic indicators show deepening distress. Iran’s economy contracted 10% in the first three months of the year, while inflation climbed to 85%. The central bank has reportedly pledged up to $2 billion to support the currency against sanctions and a US naval blockade affecting oil exports.

Allegations of unpaid oil proceeds

A report by Farhikhtegan alleged that an intermediary trust used to recover proceeds from overseas Iranian oil sales owed nearly $2 billion to NIOC. Three individual trustees involved in oil contracts reportedly owed hundreds of millions of dollars each.

Iran’s parliament has launched an inquiry into these claims. Some reports suggest the allegations may reflect internal power struggles within the country’s oil industry rather than solely financial mismanagement.

US pressure campaign yields results

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that "Operation Economic Outcast" is producing results. He pointed to the rial’s record lows and confirmed that Iran loaded zero crude oil onto tankers last month.

Bessent emphasized that the pressure campaign "will not stop" until Iran ceases financing terrorism and nuclear development. National security adviser Mohsen Rezaei warned during a government meeting on October 3 that the economy is facing one of its "most challenging periods."

What the numbers show

The simultaneous disclosure of a $2 billion revenue shortfall at NIOC and a $2 billion central bank intervention pledge highlights a critical liquidity mismatch. The state-owned oil company’s inability to recover overseas proceeds coincides exactly with the central bank’s commitment to defend the rial, suggesting that foreign exchange reserves are being depleted to offset lost oil revenue streams rather than for broader economic stimulus.