The U.S. Senate will hold a vote on President Donald Trump’s proposed nuclear power agreement with Saudi Arabia before December 13, following a successful push by lawmakers concerned about nuclear proliferation risks in the Middle East.

The vote falls within the mandatory 90-day congressional review period that began when the pact, known as a 123 Agreement, was entered into the Senate record on September 14. Senators Jeff Merkley, Tim Kaine, Ed Markey, Chris Coons, and Chris Van Hollen collaborated with Republicans to secure this procedural step, allowing Congress to potentially pass a resolution of disapproval.

Enrichment and nonproliferation gaps

Critics argue the agreement fails to prohibit Saudi Arabia from enriching uranium or reprocessing nuclear waste, activities that could provide pathways to weapons-grade material. This contrasts sharply with the 2009 civilian nuclear deal with the United Arab Emirates, which accepted strict restrictions on these activities, a standard often referred to as the "gold standard" for U.S. nonproliferation safeguards.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has stated the kingdom does not seek nuclear weapons but would develop them if Iran acquires them. Senator Chris Murphy previously argued that approving the Saudi deal without stringent controls could weaken U.S. leverage in negotiations with Tehran.

Divergence between political conditions and legal text

While President Trump has publicly linked the nuclear pact to Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, congressional aides noted that the agreement itself contains no clauses linking the two issues. This disconnect highlights a divergence between the administration's diplomatic framing and the legal instrument submitted for review.

Furthermore, bipartisan senators have requested the declassification of two classified side letters reached with Riyadh, suggesting that critical details regarding the deal's scope remain outside public view. The Trump administration maintains that the agreement contains all nonproliferation measures required by law.

Saudi Arabia’s annualized oil export revenues rose 40% to $210 billion from $150 billion pre-war, driven by a sharp increase in crude prices that more than compensated for reduced export volumes. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, identified the Kingdom as the primary economic beneficiary of the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Price surge offsets volume decline

Brent crude futures ending December traded at approximately $97 per barrel, marking a year-to-date increase of about 60%. This price appreciation counterbalanced a significant drop in physical exports. Saudi oil exports fell from 7 million barrels per day before the war to less than 4 million barrels per day in March and April. Volumes have since rebounded to 5.5 million barrels per day.

The combination of higher prices and recovering volumes resulted in a windfall equivalent to over 6% of GDP. Brooks noted that at current export levels, Brent crude would need to fall significantly below $75 per barrel for Saudi Arabia to be worse off than its pre-war position.

Infrastructure repairs restore Red Sea route

Saudi Arabia resumed oil exports through its East-West pipeline after repairing damage from drone strikes, according to a Wall Street Journal report. This pipeline provides a critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic was disrupted by Iranian actions and subsequent US naval blockades. The US imposed a blockade in April, suspended it in June under a memorandum of understanding, and reimposed it in July after the agreement collapsed.

TankerTrackers.com noted that forcing Saudi exports through the east coast via the Red Sea effectively benefited Riyadh by aligning shipments with areas of increased US convoy protection. "Any exports Saudi achieves via the Red Sea is just icing on their $100/barrel cake," the maritime data provider stated.

Geopolitical shifts and defense deals

The conflict has altered regional dynamics, with Iran expected to emerge weakened and reliant on foreign aid for reconstruction. Meanwhile, the US State Department approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, pending congressional approval. This move follows Saudi requests for military support against Houthi attacks on its infrastructure, which President Donald Trump declined to provide directly but addressed through intelligence assistance.

What the numbers show

The data reveals a stark divergence between physical output and financial gain. While daily export volumes contracted by approximately 21% from pre-war levels, total revenue expanded by 40%. This indicates that the elasticity of demand for crude oil during the crisis allowed price increases to dominate revenue outcomes. The breakeven threshold cited by Brooks, below $75 per barrel, highlights that Saudi fiscal health remains robust even if volumes do not fully recover to pre-war highs, provided prices remain elevated.