Economist Peter Schiff highlighted President Donald Trump’s rapidly declining approval ratings on August 2, 2026, framing the data as evidence of economic hardship for American consumers. Citing a July AP-NORC poll conducted between July 23 and July 27, Schiff pointed to an approval rating of 33%, with 66% disapproval of the president’s job performance. This marks a 4 percentage point drop from the previous June survey and stands as the lowest approval rating for any second-term U.S. president since 1940, surpassed only by Richard Nixon in the days preceding his resignation.

The political sentiment reflects broader economic pressures, particularly as U.S. gasoline prices crossed $4 a gallon in July. Patrick De Haan warned that prices could remain above $4 per gallon beyond the first week of August, fueled by renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran that disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Schiff argued that these polling numbers are "not consistent with a booming economy," directly countering claims by Trump and his supporters that the administration’s policies are driving robust growth.

Disapproval is widespread across party lines, with broad opposition from Democrats and independents, alongside roughly 37% disapproval among Republicans. Support for Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict specifically collapsed to 28%, indicating that foreign policy tensions are significantly impacting his domestic standing. A New York Times report also noted the historic nature of these low polling numbers, reinforcing the narrative of diminishing public confidence.

Impeachment Odds Rise

Prediction markets reflect the growing political risk surrounding the presidency. On Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based platform, the odds of Trump being impeached before his term ends stood at 64%, little changed since April. Similarly, on Kalshi, a contract tracking whether Trump will be impeached before January 1, 2028, trades at 66%. These figures suggest sustained market expectation of congressional action, despite Trump having been acquitted in both previous impeachment trials during his first term—in December 2019 and January 2021.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between the administration’s narrative of a "booming economy" and the reality of $4-plus gasoline prices creates a tangible disconnect with voters. While inflation and geopolitical instability drive consumer pain, the polling data suggests these factors are translating directly into political vulnerability. The stability of impeachment odds at roughly 65% across different platforms indicates that this is not a transient spike but a entrenched risk factor for the remainder of the term.

President Donald Trump announced the cancellation of planned military strikes on Iran to resume negotiations, triggering a sharp rally in U.S. equity futures and a decline in crude oil prices. The decision, described as halting a "massive attack," aims to secure a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Tehran's nuclear program. As of Sunday evening, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 204.00 points, or 0.39%, to 52,839.00, while S&P 500 futures gained 32.00 points, or 0.43%, to 7,551.25. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 181.50 points, or 0.64%, to 28,585.75. In commodities, WTI crude oil plunged 4.96% to $80.47 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 4.80% to $83.71 per barrel, reflecting reduced fears of supply disruption.

The diplomatic shift follows pressure from regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, who urged de-escalation. Trump stated that negotiations would begin on Monday afternoon. However, uncertainty remains high as Iran denied requesting the halt, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei clarifying that a recent shipping agreement with Oman does not guarantee the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.504, while natural gas futures rose 0.58% to $2.763 per MMBtu.

Market Reaction

Financial markets responded swiftly to the news of paused military action, with equity indices rising and energy prices falling:

In contrast, Asian markets traded lower amid broader geopolitical anxiety. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 5.29% to 6,246.76, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.85% to 63,171.03.

Diplomatic Uncertainty Persists

Despite the pause in hostilities, the path to resolution remains unclear. Trump emphasized that the goal is the "denuclearization of Iran" and a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian officials have not confirmed the terms. Baqaei stated that the understanding with Oman regarding a new route is "a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one" for reopening the strait. The semi-official Fars news agency dismissed the cancellation, stating that Trump has "run out of steam." Investors remain cautious, as the lack of confirmed terms from Tehran leaves room for continued volatility should negotiations falter.