President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of the 'Iran Blockade' and called for a 20% fee from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to provide 'safety and security.' Trump declared the United States as 'The Guardian of the Hormuz Strait' and stated that, as a matter of fairness, the nation must be reimbursed for 'any and all costs necessary to do the job.' A report by Semafor indicates that the White House says the plan has been pursued for months. While the specific process for charging fees has not been detailed, Trump indicated that the formation and process would begin immediately.

Strait of Hormuz: Ground Reality vs. Official Position

Contradicting U.S. assertions that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, a shipping insider has told CBS that nothing is currently passing through the critical waterway. This on-the-ground account stands in stark contrast to official American claims about freedom of navigation in the region. Ship-tracking data had already confirmed that no vessels passed through the strait in the last day, reinforcing the shipping insider's account and underscoring the growing risk environment for commercial and energy shipping.

Incident in the Strait of Hormuz

A vessel navigating the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile in the latest development to roil one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. All crew members aboard the stricken ship are reported to be safe, even as the incident highlights the deteriorating security conditions along this vital global shipping lane.

International Reaction

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to the announcement on X, stating that 'POTUS is absolutely right' but asserting that Iran 'has always been the Guardian of the Strait.' Araghchi commented that the 20% fee proposed by Trump is 'too much' and emphasized that Iran 'will be fair.'

Prediction Market Outlook

Polymarket, a prediction platform based on the Polygon network, is currently hosting a contract titled 'US charges Hormuz fees by…?' where users wager using the USDC stablecoin. Over $33,000 has been bet on the contract so far. Despite Trump's call for a fee, the prediction market indicates it is unlikely the U.S. will impose such a levy. The probability estimates across key deadlines are as follows:

Oil Market Impact

The escalating geopolitical tensions have driven up global oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged by 2.11% to reach $79.79, while Brent Crude climbed approximately 1.94% to $84.92.

President Donald Trump confirmed that 19 million barrels of oil flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz, directly countering Iran's military claim that the strategic waterway had been closed. The statement reinforces the U.S. position that oil shipments remain uninterrupted despite escalating tensions surrounding ongoing nuclear negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20% of global oil and gas shipments, making any disruption a critical concern for global energy markets.

Trump Floats US Toll As Leverage In Stalled Talks

Trump also warned that the United States may impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if the Iran peace deal collapses. In a statement on Truth Social, Trump specified there would be "NO TOLLS" in the strategic waterway for 60 days, "unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed." He framed any potential future charges as reimbursement for U.S. forces acting as a "Guardian Angel" to the region. The warning comes as U.S. and Iranian delegations, including Vice President JD Vance, prepare for talks in Switzerland to negotiate terms beyond the interim memorandum. Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported a revision granting Iran and Oman authority over future maritime administration in the strait, leaving open the possibility that tolls could resume after the initial 60-day period.

Strait Closure Claim Adds Fresh Uncertainty

Tensions escalated after Iran's military announced it had closed the strait, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon that allegedly breached the ceasefire. U.S. Central Command denied the closure, stating that 55 merchant ships transited the strait safely, carrying more than 17 million barrels of oil. Trump's latest update raised that figure to 19 million barrels, further reinforcing the U.S. denial of any operational disruption. The conflicting claims regarding the status of the waterway and its administration highlight the fragility of the current negotiations.

The following table summarizes the key parameters surrounding the Strait of Hormuz dispute: