Manish Chokhani flags Trump disruption, China wake-up call, trade deal uncertainty and IT valuation risks

As global markets navigate shifting geopolitics and evolving economic dynamics, Manish Chokhani, Director at Enam Holdings, presented a comprehensive analysis of how President Trump's policies, China's strategic positioning, trade uncertainties, and technological disruption are reshaping investment landscapes. Speaking at the CNBC-TV18 Market Forum on January 13, 2026, Chokhani outlined critical challenges facing investors in the current environment.

Global Economic Order Transformation

Chokhani emphasized that the global economic framework established after the Berlin Wall's fall has undergone fundamental changes under President Trump's leadership. "The world has fundamentally changed. There's no two ways about it. What happened after the fall of the Berlin Wall gave us 25 years of American supremacy and globalisation, and President Trump is clearly reversing that," he stated.

The shift represents a move away from globalization toward more resilient supply chain models. According to Chokhani, organizations are prioritizing supply chain resilience over efficiency through near-shoring, friend-shoring, and on-shoring strategies. This transformation has created bottlenecks and contributed to inflationary pressures, driving increased interest in hard assets such as gold and silver, while younger investors explore alternatives like Bitcoin.

Trade Deal Timeline and Negotiating Dynamics

Regarding US-India trade negotiations, Chokhani advised against expecting rapid resolutions, highlighting the unpredictable nature of deal-making at the highest levels. "No one can predict when a trade deal will be signed. Even the man who has to sign it might change his mind tomorrow morning," he observed.

Chokhani acknowledged the imbalance in negotiating power, noting that India has fewer leverage points compared to China. "We don't have too many things we can hold someone to ransom for, unlike China," he explained. Despite potential short-term difficulties lasting three months to one year, he emphasized that maintaining strategic course over 10-20 year cycles remains the appropriate approach.

China's Strategic Response Model

Chokhani highlighted China's response to pressure during Trump's previous presidency as an instructive example for other nations. "China took it as a wake-up call 10 years ago and realised it needed to build its own technology, markets and systems," he noted.

He challenged assumptions about innovation emerging from challenging environments, pointing to successful Chinese companies as evidence. "Where did Tencent, Alibaba or BYD come from? They came from the same China we once dismissed," Chokhani argued, suggesting that India faces a similar technological reckoning moment.

Indian IT Services Valuation Concerns

On Indian IT services sector prospects, Chokhani expressed caution regarding current valuations amid technological disruption. "Would you buy Indian IT services companies at high multiples today? You won't, because you now know there is a terminal value to that business," he stated.

Chokhani drew parallels with historical technological shifts, noting that disruptions typically identify potential losers before winners become apparent. "Any disruption tells you very clearly who the losers are, even if we don't yet know the winners," he explained.

He characterized artificial intelligence as a genuine business transformation comparable to the internet revolution. While acknowledging potential benefits for India if domestic firms effectively leverage data and efficiency advantages, Chokhani warned that failure to adapt would constrain long-term valuations. "AI is real, just like the internet was real. But India is going through a wake-up call in the technology space," he concluded.