U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israel is likely to undermine the new U.S.-Iran peace deal as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure to continue Lebanon strikes ahead of fall elections. Current and former intelligence officials concluded that Netanyahu’s political survival depends on convincing voters he will continue fighting Hezbollah rather than withdraw troops, according to a Washington Post report. The warning comes as escalations in the Middle East renewed on Thursday, with Israel striking southern Lebanon after reports of four soldiers killed in fighting.

Israel's Stance Threatens Accord

U.S. intelligence reports describe Israel’s frustration that the peace memorandum undermines its broader goal of maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. A second U.S. official stated that Israel’s refusal to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon is likely to doom the agreement. "Continuing to occupy part of Lebanon is a recipe for disaster," the official said. "Without a full Israeli withdrawal, the likelihood of resumed hostilities… is all but certain." Hezbollah said it was targeting Israeli forces attempting to push toward the foothills around Nabatieh.

Diplomatic Fallout and Postponements

Following the conflict, U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks set for Switzerland were postponed, and Vice President JD Vance delayed his trip. Vance previously told reporters that the United States remains Israel’s "only powerful ally" and its strongest global ally. Israel has kept its distance from the interim U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement signed on Wednesday. The Israel Defense Forces currently controls more than 200 square miles of territory in Lebanon.

Domestic Pressure and Casualties

A May poll by the Institute for National Security Studies found that 70% of Jewish Israelis support escalating the fight against Hezbollah. According to Lebanese authorities, more than 3,000 people have been killed since the campaign began in mid-March. The domestic support for escalation presents a significant challenge to the peace process, as Netanyahu navigates between international diplomatic pressure and internal political survival.

Benjamin Netanyahu will seek re-election this year, his party Likud confirmed on Wednesday, moving quickly to end speculation after President Donald Trump expressed uncertainty about the Israeli prime minister's political future. The announcement sets the stage for Israel's first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, a security failure that triggered a major assault on the Gaza Strip and defined Netanyahu's current term.

In a brief statement shared with Reuters, Likud said Netanyahu would stand in the election and, God willing, would win. The election has not yet been formally announced but must be held by October. The confirmation follows comments made by Trump to ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl, who posted on X that the President said he did not know if Netanyahu would seek another term. Trump was quoted as saying, "I don't know, he's had an amazing career. Does he want to continue?"

Political Context and Challenges

Netanyahu has faced a turbulent term since returning to power in December 2022, leading the most right-wing coalition in Israeli history. Before the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, his government faced mass anti-government protests. The upcoming vote will test his coalition's viability amid ongoing regional conflicts.

Polling data indicates significant hurdles for Netanyahu's re-election. A June 9 survey by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute found that 61% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run again. Furthermore, polls have repeatedly shown his coalition would struggle to win a majority in the next election.

Opposition Dynamics and US Relations

While Netanyahu's coalition faces internal polling challenges, opposition parties also confront difficulties. Polling suggests an anti-Netanyahu bloc could fall short of a parliamentary majority unless it forms a coalition with Arab parties, an option some opposition leaders have rejected.

U.S. and Israeli officials maintain that Trump and Netanyahu, who launched the Iran war together in February, still have a close relationship, though recent weeks have exposed strains. Trump has pushed Israel to curb military action in Lebanon while Washington negotiates a peace deal with Tehran. Last week, Trump acknowledged calling Netanyahu "crazy" during a heated phone call, while also asserting the two leaders get along well.