Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on Thursday that wrong strategies and impulsive decisions could devastate energy infrastructure and create an endless quagmire lasting years. The statement countered President Donald Trump's claim that a peace agreement had been approved, highlighting the fragility of ongoing negotiations and the potential for severe economic consequences.

Warning Against Escalation

Ghalibaf stated in a post on X that miscalculations would reset the entire board for the worse, explode energy infrastructure and markets, and create a crisis that policymakers would be stuck in for years. He cautioned that further pressure could trigger a tougher response from Tehran, signaling that investors would see a different Iran if negotiations faltered. The remarks underscored the high stakes for energy markets, which remain highly sensitive to developments in the region.

Conflicting Reports on Deal Progress

Trump claimed on Truth Social that he canceled planned strikes against Iran after negotiations received approval from the country's highest leadership. However, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media outlets, that Tehran had not yet reached a final decision on the proposed agreement. On Wednesday, Trump indicated that additional military action could follow if Tehran fails to reach an agreement, coinciding with Iran's announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy Markets at Risk

Markets have reacted sharply to the conflict, with Brent crude falling to a nearly two-month low of $89 per barrel on Friday as investors welcomed signs of progress. However, Ghalibaf's warning carries particular weight due to Iran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. Roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments normally pass through the waterway, making any threat to regional infrastructure a major concern for oil traders and policymakers. A breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the recent pullback in oil prices, renewing fears of economic fallout from a prolonged conflict.

Iran stated that it has not reached a final decision on a proposed peace agreement with the U.S., contradicting President Donald Trump's claim that the deal was effectively approved by the country's highest leadership. The conflicting statements have prompted fresh questions about the conflict, which has recently rattled global markets and energy supplies. Trump had previously announced that planned strikes against Iran were canceled following negotiations and claimed the framework of an agreement had received backing from several regional allies.

Deal Status and Key Developments

The core objective of the agreement remains ensuring that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon. However, there is a significant discrepancy between the U.S. and Iranian accounts regarding the finality of the negotiations. The following table outlines the current state of the diplomatic process based on available statements:

Conflicting Statements on Approval

Trump told reporters at the White House that the answer was "yes" when asked if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had approved the deal. He characterized the agreement as a "very strong MOU" and signaled that all internal Iranian obstacles had been cleared. In contrast, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that while large portions of the agreement had been finalized, Tehran had not concluded its review. "We have not reached a final conclusion on this matter," Baghaei told reporters, adding that the issue is currently being reviewed by relevant decision-making bodies.

Market Impact and Economic Consequences

The uncertainty surrounding the deal has had tangible effects on global financial markets. Oil prices surged previously on fears that fighting could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, while global stocks swung sharply on escalation and ceasefire headlines. Since the conflict reignited in late February, the S&P 500 has fallen 7%, while Brent crude surged more than 20% as traders priced in the risk of disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Elevated energy prices contributed to a rise in U.S. headline inflation to 4.2% in May from 3.8% in April. Hopes for a deal helped reverse some losses recently, with the S&P 500 rising 1.75% and Brent crude prices falling to around $89 per barrel.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

At the center of the conflict is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. Roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments normally pass through the narrow waterway, making any disruption a major concern for oil traders and policymakers. Trump has indicated that additional military action could follow if Tehran fails to reach an agreement. A successful deal could remove the risk premium from energy markets, whereas a breakdown in negotiations could reignite concerns over oil supplies, inflation, and global growth.