Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocked the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hike, arguing that geopolitical control over shipping chokepoints drives inflation more than monetary policy.

Ghalibaf posted a satirical "Straits Taylor Rule" on X on Wednesday, adding terms for the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to the standard economic formula central banks use to set rates. He stated that the Fed’s neutral rate fails to account for the risk premium tied to these corridors.

The Fed Delivered the Hike

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, marking its first rate increase since 2023. U.S. producer prices rose 5.4% year-over-year in August, up from 4.8% in July, driven largely by higher energy costs tied to the Iran war.

Oil Prices Remain Elevated

The war in Iran, which started in February, has disrupted global shipping and sent oil prices above $100 a barrel this month. At the time of writing, Brent crude was up 0.22% at $105.84, while WTI futures were down 0.30% at $102.12.

The Strait of Hormuz typically handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, according to the International Energy Agency. Rising gasoline and diesel prices have prompted retailers like Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) to raise prices of their private-label motor oil and introduce weekly purchase limits.

What the Numbers Show

A divergence exists between Iran’s claim of setting the risk premium and U.S. military data on shipping volume. While Ghalibaf argued that the Fed cannot influence chokepoints, U.S. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins told Al Jazeera that roughly 900 million barrels of oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since May, describing the blockade as "highly effective" but noting Iran does not fully control the waterway.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has escalated "Operation Economic Outcast," a sanctions campaign aimed at cutting off Iran’s remaining financial lifelines.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi cited a US report to counter claims of Iranian defenselessness, asserting that hundreds of US military sites were destroyed during recent conflict.

Damage Claims and Source Data

Araghchi posted on X on Tuesday that the narrative of Iran being defenseless is fiction. He stated that hundreds of US military sites were blown to pieces and dozens of aircraft were scorched. He added that this represents only the tip of the iceberg and promised further revelations.

The claim references a US Central Command report detailing damage from Operation Epic Fury. The report indicates Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings at bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan.

Aircraft Losses Detailed

Table 5 of the report lists specific aircraft losses during Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). The data includes:

• Four F-15Es destroyed
• One F-35A damaged by enemy fire over Iran
• Seven KC-135 refueling aircraft damaged or destroyed
• One E-3 damaged by Iranian strikes
• Up to 30 MQ-9 aircraft destroyed in various circumstances

Escalating Tensions

President Donald Trump ordered fresh US strikes on Iranian targets earlier this month. The US military targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps assets, including air-defense systems, radar sites, maritime equipment, mine-laying capabilities and communications facilities.

Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against US forces in Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq. Last month, US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after detecting preparations to fire sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran was also reportedly considering expanding potential attacks to US military assets in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria’s Bezmer air base and facilities in Cyprus. Iranian forces had also considered targeting subsea fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if the conflict escalated.