Iran and its Houthi allies launched a series of attacks across the Persian Gulf, striking an oil and chemical tanker near Qatar and damaging a commercial aircraft in Riyadh, intensifying regional security concerns.

The tanker was hit by multiple projectiles late Wednesday, resulting in casualties, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing maritime intelligence firm Vanguard and the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency. No group claimed responsibility for the tanker strike, though regional officials told the publication that Iran was likely behind the incident.

Houthis strike Saudi Arabia for third consecutive day

The Houthis followed up with strikes on Thursday in Saudi Arabia, forcing residents to take cover for a third consecutive day. A Saudia Airlines commercial plane was heavily damaged by fire at an airport terminal after being struck by shrapnel from an interception or another projectile at Riyadh's international airport.

The following table summarises the key incidents reported across the region:

Rising attacks threaten key oil routes

The latest incidents add to a week of worsening tensions across major energy corridors. Over the past weekend, Saudi Arabian and Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive against the Houthis after the group seized territory weeks earlier. The Houthis aim to retake the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital route for Saudi oil exports, and have struck a Saudi Aramco refinery. The group could also target Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which recently resumed operations.

Shipping risks expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Brett Erickson, Managing Principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, warned that a reported fire aboard a Marshall Islands-flagged supertanker near Fujairah could threaten ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Gulf of Oman. He said disrupting the network, which is also used by shadow fleets to evade sanctions, could severely affect regional oil flows, stating, "It's game over."

At the time of writing, crude oil prices reflected the heightened uncertainty:

US-Iran tensions rise despite ongoing talks

Donald Trump said the U.S. will not take military action against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, citing ongoing and productive discussions with Tehran. U.S. officials believe delaying a decision on renewed military action could pressure Iran into making major concessions, particularly on its nuclear program, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Andreas Krieg of King's College London told the publication that Iran is escalating pressure as Washington strengthens its rhetoric and military posture, even as both sides keep diplomacy open. He warned that efforts to gain leverage could trigger a wider war if a serious incident occurs. "This is precisely what makes the moment so dangerous," he said.

The US Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels and their owning companies for transporting Iranian oil and petrochemicals to Asia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that no enabler of sanctions evasion is safe from full enforcement authorities.

The action falls under Operation Economic Outcast, targeting Iran’s remaining shadow fleet. Treasury described the move as neutralizing the vast majority of Tehran’s shipping capacity. One vessel, the Tina 5, moved more than 1.5 million barrels of crude in August alone.

Market context and supply dynamics

Global oil inventories have declined significantly since the start of the US-Iran conflict. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser reported that stockpiles fell from about 10 billion barrels to less than 6 billion. Despite this depletion, crude flows out of the Gulf have returned to approximately 18.5 million barrels per day, matching pre-conflict levels according to data from Kpler.

If the current blockade persists, Kpler estimates Iran’s oil revenue will fall to zero by the end of this year. Recent market prices reflect ongoing volatility amid these geopolitical constraints.

What the numbers show

A divergence exists between physical supply availability and inventory buffers. While Gulf exports have recovered to pre-conflict levels of 18.5 million barrels per day, total global stockpiles have contracted by roughly 40% to under 6 billion barrels. This suggests that while immediate supply is flowing, the safety net for market shocks has eroded significantly. The simultaneous drop in Brent and WTI futures, despite thin inventories, indicates that traders may be pricing in the effectiveness of the US blockade in curbing Iranian revenue rather than anticipating an immediate supply shortage.