The intersection of ancient wisdom and contemporary geopolitics has found new relevance in recent discussions about global power dynamics and middle power coalitions. Drawing from Thucydides' timeless observations on international relations, modern analysts are revisiting how the ancient Greek historian's insights apply to today's evolving world order.

Thucydides' Enduring Framework on Power

Writing approximately 2,400 years ago, Thucydides offered profound insights into the nuanced interplay of national power and human nature through his work, History of the Peloponnesian War. His analysis of the conflict between Athens, a naval great power, and Sparta, a land-based great power, provides a framework that resonates with contemporary international relations.

Thucydides believed that fear, honour, and self-interest were the primary drivers of human nature and international relationships. His famous aphorism that "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" continues to influence discussions about power dynamics, though recent Davos discourse suggests this need not be considered inevitable in emerging global orders.

Middle Power Coalition Strategy

The concept of middle powers forming coalitions to counter great power dominance draws directly from Thucydidean analysis. Sparta leveraged its military capabilities and formed the Peloponnesian League with formidable allies to defend against Athenian expansion. Thucydides considered such alliances critical and the only effective way to counter a great power, while acknowledging their susceptibility to shifting loyalties.

Recent geopolitical developments have demonstrated this principle in action. When territorial integrity was challenged, middle powers including Denmark, France, Germany, and Canada coordinated their response, even moving military forces and preparing to invoke collective defense mechanisms. This practical application of coalition building reflects the enduring relevance of ancient strategic thinking.

India's Strategic Positioning

India has fashioned its foreign policy as a swing power, maintaining strategic flexibility across different alignments. The country demonstrates this approach through various relationships and memberships:

• Global South Alignment: Cooperation with countries including China on agricultural trade issues
• Western Partnership: Collaboration on military strategy in the Indo-Pacific region
• Diverse Relationships: Friendly relations with both democratic countries and non-democratic nations like the UAE, Russia, and Iran
• Institutional Participation: Founding member of BRICS and enthusiastic participant in G-20

This multi-alignment strategy reflects the pragmatic middle-ground between pursuing national self-interest and maintaining international relationships based on values, embodying principles that Thucydides would have recognized.

Institutional Transformation and Uncertainty

The current period of global transformation, characterized as 'manthan' or churn, presents multiple possible outcomes for international institutions. While the old order may be evolving, the character of emerging arrangements remains unclear.

The philosophical connection between Thucydides and Thomas Hobbes, who produced the first English translation of The History of the Peloponnesian War in 1639, reinforces the enduring nature of these insights. Both viewed strength and power as necessary but ultimately self-defeating when unchecked, a principle that continues to inform contemporary strategic thinking.

Contemporary Relevance and Future Implications

As global powers discover that the threat of power use often proves more effective than its actual application, the Thucydidean framework provides valuable perspective on current dynamics. The observation that such leverage tends to lose potency once employed reflects the ancient historian's nuanced understanding of power relationships.

The challenge for middle powers like India lies in maintaining issue-based alignment flexibility in an environment of intensifying great power rivalry. As Thucydides noted, "History is philosophy teaching by example," suggesting that ancient insights continue to offer valuable guidance for navigating contemporary geopolitical complexities.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has unveiled an ambitious plan for Canada to double its non-US exports over the next decade, citing growing concerns over American tariffs and investment uncertainty. This strategic shift comes as Canada grapples with the vulnerabilities created by its close economic ties with the United States.

Economic Vulnerabilities and Tariff Concerns

Carney highlighted that Canada's deep economic integration with the US has become a source of vulnerability, particularly for jobs in key sectors such as automotive, steel, and lumber. The Prime Minister noted that US tariffs have reached levels not seen since the Great Depression, signaling a potential shift in the decades-long process of closer economic integration between the two nations.

Current Trade Landscape

To illustrate the current trade dynamics, let's look at some key figures:

Canada's Energy Resources

Carney emphasized Canada's significant energy resources, highlighting:

• World's third-largest oil reserves
• Fourth-largest natural gas reserves
• Major supplier of energy to the United States

Future Trade Strategy

To mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on the US market, Canada plans to:

1. Re-engage with India and China as alternative trading partners
2. Leverage its energy resources in new markets
3. Review its free trade deal with the US, scheduled for 2026

Conclusion

As Canada navigates these changing economic tides, the success of its plan to diversify trade partnerships may be crucial in maintaining economic stability and growth. The coming years could see significant shifts in Canada's trade relationships and economic strategies as it works to reduce its dependence on the US market.