The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices lost momentum in recent days as stock market volatility increased. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index slipped to 29,118 on Friday from its record high of 30,750, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from 52,650 to 51,880. Investors are now focusing on four key events likely to shape the direction of U.S. stocks this week.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Data

The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 Indices will react to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data, which will provide insight into the state of the economy. Economists expect the report to show the economy added 114k jobs this month after adding 172k in May. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

These figures emerge as the Federal Reserve considers its next monetary policy move. Raphael Bostic recently hinted the bank may hike rates later this year to counter elevated inflation, aligning with officials' statements at the last meeting. Strong NFP data could reinforce expectations of a rate hike, though falling crude oil prices may make the Fed hesitant, explaining the retreat in US bond yields.

SpaceX to Enter the Nasdaq 100 Index

Another key catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index is the entry of Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX). This is a significant move for the index, as the company holds a valuation of about $2 trillion. Analysts at JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) estimated the inclusion could trigger over $4.3 billion in buying by index providers.

However, SpaceX has lost momentum, with shares falling over 32% from their all-time high. History suggests initial surges for companies entering indices may not last, as seen with Rocket Lab and Astera Labs, which retreated recently after joining the Nasdaq 100.

US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk

US stocks face uncertainty as investors monitor tensions between the US and Iran, which have jeopardized the ceasefire. The two sides exchanged fire over the weekend, with Iran striking bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while the US targeted key Iranian sites after attacks on ships in the Strait.

An escalation could push crude oil prices higher, posing risks to the stock market. Conversely, there are indications President Trump is hesitant to escalate the conflict ahead of midterm elections, amid concerns over falling oil inventories.

Nike Earnings

Unlike last week, when Micron (NASDAQ: MU) released market-moving earnings, this week features fewer significant updates. Nike, the embattled sportswear company, is the primary focus as analysts remain pessimistic about its turnaround strategy. Traders will assess whether management's efforts are yielding results.

Other companies reporting financial results include Constellation Brands, General Mills, and FactSet.