DMCC, the leading international business district that drives the flow of global trade through Dubai, today launched its Future of Trade 2026 report. The report finds that global trade will remain resilient over the next two years but will be fundamentally reshaped by artificial intelligence, structural tariff volatility, and a contest for industrial advantage in critical minerals and clean energy infrastructure. More than 80% of global trade leaders expect slow trade growth with ongoing disruption, while only 4% expect a best-case scenario.

The report, titled Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture, highlights that nearly 20% of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6% a year earlier. AI is rapidly emerging as the dominant driver of trade growth, with trade in AI-related goods expanding by more than 20% in the first half of 2025. Although these goods account for only 15% of global trade by volume, they generated 43% of total trade growth during the period, growing five times faster than non-AI goods.

Trade Forecasts and Key Metrics

The report provides specific forecasts for merchandise and services exports. It anticipates a slowdown in merchandise exports growth before a marginal recovery in the following year.

Four Forces Shaping Global Commerce

The report identifies four structural forces reshaping global commerce: AI moving from experimentation to operational deployment; the breakdown of a stable tariff framework; the shift from efficiency-led to resilience-led supply chains; and the energy transition becoming a contest for industrial and geopolitical advantage.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC, stated that AI-related goods accounted for 43% of global trade growth in the first half of 2025 despite representing just 15% of global trade by volume. He emphasized that competitiveness will be defined by technology, connectivity, and energy access. Feryal Ahmadi, Deputy CEO and Chief Operating Officer of DMCC, noted that AI is improving efficiency across customs and logistics, while stablecoins and central bank digital currencies are beginning to support faster settlement.

Supply Chain and Energy Shifts

The report details the shift from "China + 1" to broader "China + many" strategies. U.S. imports from Vietnam rose 345% between 2014 and 2024, while imports from India rose 94% and from Mexico 72%. The 2026 conflict with Iran, which precipitated the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude above $120 per barrel and reduced tanker transits by approximately 90%.

Clean energy investment reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, outpacing fossil fuel investment by $102 billion. However, the transition has become a competition for industrial advantage, with China controlling 94% of global sintered permanent magnet production. South-South trade now accounts for approximately 35% of global trade, outpacing North-North flows.