Bulgaria Prepares to Join Euro as 21st Member Nation Amid Public Skepticism and Political Turmoil

Bulgaria is preparing to become the 21st country to join the euro currency union, representing a historic step in its European integration journey. The milestone comes at a challenging time, with the nation grappling with political instability and significant public skepticism about the currency transition.

Public Opinion Divided on Euro Adoption

Public sentiment remains split on the euro transition, according to recent polling data. An EU Eurobarometer poll conducted in March revealed strong opposition to joining the eurozone among Bulgarian citizens.

The opposition stems primarily from concerns about potential price increases and inflation, which currently stands at 3.7%. Many citizens fear merchants will use the currency changeover as an opportunity to round prices upward, worsening the inflation situation.

Economic Context and Challenges

Bulgaria, with its 6.4 million people, remains one of the poorest members of the 27-country European Union. The average monthly wage stands at €1,300 (USD 1,530), significantly lower than wealthier European nations. This economic disparity contributes to public anxiety about adopting the euro.

The government successfully met EU requirements by reducing inflation to 2.7% earlier in the year, securing approval from EU leaders for euro adoption. However, this achievement was overshadowed by subsequent political turmoil when the government resigned after less than a year in office following nationwide anti-corruption protests.

Political Instability Complicates Transition

The government's resignation has created significant challenges for the euro adoption process:

• Left the country without a regular budget for the following year
• Hampered plans for long-overdue structural reforms
• Delayed decisions on EU support fund utilization
• Prompted expectations for an eighth election in five years, scheduled for spring

Mixed Reactions from Citizens

Public opinion reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding the transition. Nevelin Petrov, 64, expressed support for the change, stating that Bulgaria's rightful place is "alongside the other developed and democratic European nations" and believing euro adoption will contribute to long-term prosperity.

Conversely, Darina Vitova, who operates a pedicure salon in Sofia, acknowledged the benefits while expressing concerns about timing. She noted that while the standard of living and incomes lag behind richer European countries, prices continue rising, potentially making life more difficult for average citizens.

Opposition and Disinformation Campaigns

Anti-euro sentiment has been amplified by nationalist and pro-Russian groups spreading disinformation about the currency change. False claims include allegations that euro adoption could lead to bank account confiscation. Pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party organized anti-euro rallies in May and September, though these remained smaller than the mass protests that toppled the government.

According to Dimitar Keranov, programme coordinator for engaging Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, anti-euro disinformation aims to "reduce support for the European Union, NATO and Ukraine." He noted that Bulgaria's European integration contradicts Moscow's interests, making currency adoption another tool to combat Russian influence.

Economic Impact Expected to Be Limited

Local economists anticipate minimal dramatic changes to Bulgaria's economy from euro adoption. The lev has been pegged to the euro since 1999 at a fixed rate of 1 lev for every 51 euro cents. During January, both currencies will be accepted for cash payments, though change will be given only in euros.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that countries typically experience slight, transient price increases of 0.2-0.4% immediately after joining the eurozone. Some apparent price rises may result from delayed menu and price list updates rather than actual euro-related increases.