Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned that a potential agreement with Iran could undermine U.S. and allied security interests, saying President Donald Trump is prioritizing a quick political win over strategic policy considerations. Bolton expressed concern that the President's desire to declare victory could lead to a suboptimal agreement for America, Israel, and Gulf Arab states.

Bolton Criticizes Deal Approach

On Wednesday, Bolton posted on X, stating, "I fear a bad deal is coming for America, Israel and Gulf Arab states." He argued that Trump's "zeal for a deal" is driven by a desire to "declare victory and move on from the conflict." Bolton further contended that the push for an agreement is "motivated by domestic political concerns, not by national-security strategic analysis."

Rising Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

The warnings come amid escalating military activity in the region. Iran had threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and target vessels in the key shipping route, while President Trump had warned of possible U.S. military action if no nuclear agreement was reached. Although Iran's military declared the Strait closed to commercial and oil traffic, U.S. Central Command stated the waterway remained open and reports of attacks were false. Despite the friction, Trump previously indicated negotiators were close to a "very, very good deal" on Iran's nuclear program.

Military Strikes and Incident Response

On Tuesday, President Trump ordered military strikes against Iran after a U.S. Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. The helicopter crashed during a patrol near Oman's coast, though both pilots survived and were rescued. Trump blamed Iran for the incident, calling for a "very strong" response, while later downplaying the event because the pilots were safe. U.S. Central Command reported that American forces carried out "proportional" precision strikes on Iranian air-defense and radar systems near the Strait in response to attacks on U.S. forces and shipping in the region.

The odds of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran have plummeted on prediction market Polymarket as military exchanges between the two nations escalate. Over $1.5 million has been wagered on the outcome, reflecting heightened market uncertainty regarding the geopolitical situation. The decline follows Iran downing an American Apache helicopter and subsequent U.S. strikes ordered by President Trump.

Polymarket, a Polygon-based platform utilizing the USDC stablecoin, currently hosts a contract titled "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by…?". The platform allows users to bet on the likelihood of specific political outcomes. The data indicates a sharp reversal in sentiment from earlier expectations that a deal was imminent.

Bettors now assign a 7% probability to a deal being announced by June 12, representing a 43% decrease in the odds. The outlook for mid-June remains similarly bleak, with a 15% probability placed on a ceasefire by June 15, down by 35%. While the probability for a deal by June 30 is higher at 31%, this figure has still recorded a decline of 22%.

President Trump announced on Wednesday that additional military action remains a possibility if Tehran fails to reach an agreement. This warning coincided with Iran's top military command announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers and commercial vessels. The military command warned that any ship attempting to pass through the strategic waterway could come under fire.