Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent credited a four-stage pressure campaign with bringing Iran to the negotiating table, citing maximum pressure, “epic fury,” “economic fury,” and finally a naval blockade. Speaking on CNBC on Wednesday, Bessent said the administration had not pursued regime change but had “changed the regime,” and that Tehran was willing to discuss its nuclear program for the first time since 1979. He told the Economic Club of New York the night before that Washington was offering Iran carrots, with sticks held in reserve.

President Donald Trump stated in a social media post that Iran had assured Washington there were “no tolls, no insurance costs, and no other charges of any kind” being sought on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned that if the information proved false, negotiations would end immediately. The ultimatum arrives as Iran and Oman reportedly began discussions on a joint framework for managing Hormuz transit, including possible fee structures.

Bettors on Polymarket on Wednesday assigned roughly a 44% probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would return to pre-disruption norms by July 31. The market for normalization by December 31 stands at 86%. The odds of the Iranian regime falling this year are at 10%, down from a high of over 50% during the war.

Prediction Market Probabilities

Incentives and Oil Market Impact

Iran’s potential incentives include a 60-day U.S. waiver allowing it to sell crude on international markets, the lifting of Washington’s naval blockade, and the conditional release of frozen assets. Brent has fallen below $75 a barrel for the first time since the conflict began, with the IEA estimating the UAE is now exporting at nearly 85% of pre-war levels.

Bessent added that Iranian oil sales would be invoiced in dollars under the framework, meaning every transaction runs through a payment system Washington can monitor and, if needed, shut down. Bessent framed it as part of a broader push to reinforce dollar dominance, citing Venezuela as another sanctioned producer returning to the dollar system. Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, said last week that crude’s slide was “entirely sentiment-driven” and that the market was front-running a best-case reopening of the strait.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has confirmed that inspectors will visit Iran's nuclear enrichment sites, a key component of the interim deal between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending the ongoing conflict. The announcement follows conflicting statements from both nations earlier this week, with Grossi dismissing the discrepancies as a "war of words" and emphasizing the existence of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by both countries' presidents.

Agreement and Oversight

Grossi stated that the agreement explicitly mentions the IAEA's role in supervising all nuclear activities related to Iran's nuclear material facilities. "Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect," Grossi said, adding that while the exact timing is not critical, the inspections are certain to take place. "Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen," he asserted.

Diplomatic Friction

The confirmation comes amid a public disagreement between U.S. and Iranian officials. U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirmed Iran's agreement to allow IAEA inspectors back into the country, calling it a "major milestone" following negotiations in Switzerland. Conversely, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf denied any new IAEA deal, and Foreign Minister Esmaeil Baqaei stated there are no plans to allow inspections of facilities damaged during the war, denying that officials had met with the IAEA chief. Former President Donald Trump also responded on Truth Social, accusing Iran of making false statements and asserting that Tehran had agreed to indefinite inspections.

Strategic Significance

The inspections are central to the deal, which requires Iran's uranium stockpile to be "downblended" from highly enriched levels. Since the 2025 Israel-Iran war, Tehran has blocked IAEA access to key uranium enrichment facilities, limiting the agency's ability to verify the status of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and monitor enrichment equipment. While inspectors have visited other sites like the Bushehr power plant, the lack of access to enrichment centers has raised concerns among nonproliferation experts that uranium could be relocated to undeclared locations.