SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares are poised to open above their initial public offering price of $135 per share on Monday, driven by a 4.31% climb to $139.05 in premarket trading. This upward movement follows a robust 15.83% gain recorded on Friday, signaling renewed investor interest despite the stock’s recent history of sharp price fluctuations. The ability of the stock to reclaim its IPO level is a key psychological marker for traders, suggesting that early selling pressure may be easing even as the market grapples with the company's high-growth, high-volatility profile.

The recent price action has drawn divergent views from prominent market participants regarding the stock’s valuation and risk profile. Investor Gary Black has flagged SpaceX’s sharp swings as a reason for caution, pointing out that shares previously surged to $200 before dropping 45% within a 60-day period. Black argues that these extreme movements validate his cautious approach, urging investors to prioritize careful analysis over speculative claims, even as single-day surges might suggest otherwise. His comments reflect a broader debate among investors about the true valuation of the aerospace giant amidst its rapid post-IPO trajectory.

In contrast, institutional analysts present a more optimistic long-term case. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently characterized SpaceX as a "potential generational compounder," projecting that the stock could nearly triple by mid-2027. Jonas tied this bullish thesis to the company’s diversified assets in artificial intelligence, launch services, and satellite connectivity. Notably, he highlighted that SpaceX successfully avoided the expected selloff surrounding a $101 billion lockup expiration, indicating strong underlying demand and confidence from long-term holders.

Market Sentiment and Price Action

The disparity between short-term volatility and long-term growth expectations defines the current narrative around SpaceX. While retail and some sophisticated investors like Black focus on the immediate risks of drawdowns, institutional players like Morgan Stanley emphasize the structural growth drivers. The stock’s resilience in avoiding a major selloff after the lockup expiration suggests that insider selling pressure was absorbed by broader market demand, a positive signal for liquidity and stability.

What the Numbers Show

The data reveals a stock in a high-beta phase, where sentiment shifts can drive massive percentage moves in short windows. The fact that SpaceX recovered from a 45% drop from its $200 peak to trade near its $135 IPO price demonstrates significant elasticity. However, the divergence between Black’s warning about volatility and Jonas’s multi-year projection underscores the challenge for investors: balancing the immediate risk of sharp corrections against the potential for exponential growth in the space and AI sectors. The avoidance of a selloff during the $101 billion lockup expiration is a critical data point, suggesting that the initial supply overhang has been priced in, potentially reducing downward pressure in the near term.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) Vice President Stephanie Bednarek stated that the company’s Starship rocket could fundamentally alter the economics of artificial intelligence infrastructure by enabling massive compute deployments in orbit. Speaking at the International Telecommunication Union’s AI for Good Global Summit 2026 on Sunday, Bednarek argued that solar-powered satellites offer a viable solution to the growing resource pressures facing terrestrial data centers, specifically regarding power availability, land use, and cooling requirements.

The strategic shift toward space-based computing addresses critical bottlenecks on Earth. Bednarek noted that space provides vast solar energy without requiring water or land, stating, "the universe is always clear." This proposition gains urgency as the International Energy Agency projects global data-center electricity consumption will roughly double to about 950 terawatt-hours by 2030, with power usage by AI-focused facilities tripling during the same period.

Starship as the Enabler for Scale

Starship is central to SpaceX’s vision for scaling orbital computing. The fully reusable rocket is designed to carry more than 100 metric tons to orbit, a capacity Bednarek described as essential for delivering the "megaton-class materials" required for large orbital platforms. She emphasized that Starship can make such massive logistical feats a reality, bridging the gap between conceptual design and physical deployment.

Bednarek highlighted that SpaceX combines frequent launch cadence with Starlink-scale manufacturing capabilities. "The AI satellites we’re currently designing and manufacturing are merely an evolution of the latest Starlink satellites and can be mass-produced very quickly," she said. CEO Elon Musk has similarly argued that AI satellites could be simpler than Starlink spacecraft, requiring primarily solar arrays, radiators, and laser links rather than complex communications antennas. Reuters reported that the first versions could deliver compute comparable to an Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) GB300 rack.

Regulatory Filings and Market Reaction

SpaceX has formally asked the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to authorize up to 1 million solar-powered data-center satellites. The company aims to demonstrate orbital AI computing by late 2027, with broader commercial deployments potentially beginning as early as 2028. Musk has characterized solar-powered orbital data centers as a "no-brainer," predicting that space will become the lowest-cost place for AI within two or three years.

In market action, SpaceX shares were up 2.77% to $136.80 during pre-market trading on Monday. However, Benzinga Edge Rankings indicate that SpaceX stock fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium, and Long term. Despite the technical optimism surrounding Starship’s payload capacity and the manufacturing roadmap for AI satellites, immediate market sentiment remains cautious regarding the stock’s price trajectory.