BlackRock Inc. disclosed a holding of 51 million Class A common shares in SpaceX as of June 30, 2026, according to a regulatory filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The data, contained in the asset manager’s quarterly Form 13F-HR submission, provides insight into the institutional ownership structure of the private aerospace company.

Filing Details

The information was released via BlackRock’s electronic submission to the SEC database. The filing specifically identifies the security class as Class A common stock and sets the record date for the holdings at June 30, 2026.

What the Numbers Show

The disclosure confirms significant institutional participation in SpaceX’s equity structure. With 51 million shares reported, BlackRock remains a key holder in the private market vehicle associated with the aerospace firm. This filing serves as a transparent snapshot of institutional exposure to SpaceX’s capital base at the mid-year mark of FY26.

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson has declared SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) the "most overvalued large-cap stock of all time," estimating a $1 trillion overvaluation following the company’s second-quarter earnings release. The critique comes as SpaceX shares tumbled 14% on Wednesday, with investors reacting to higher-than-expected capital spending and limited cash flow disclosures despite revenue beating Wall Street estimates.

The stakes for shareholders are heightened by an impending unlock of 911.5 million shares set to trade on Thursday, which Tilson warns will nearly triple the float. He anticipates significant selling pressure as holders seek to diversify, particularly given his assessment of the stock’s "absurd valuation." This liquidity event follows a volatile public debut, with shares currently down 32% from their IPO price.

Financial Performance and Cash Flow Concerns

SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, marking a 92% year-over-year increase and surpassing analyst expectations. On an annualized basis, this run rate stands at $31.4 billion. CEO Elon Musk has projected that the company will achieve a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026.

However, Tilson criticized the quality of the financial reporting, noting that SpaceX disclosed only "selected cash flow information" for the first six months of 2026 without providing comparative figures for the same period last year. He described this lack of transparency as "totally unacceptable" for one of the world’s most valuable companies.

Valuation Analysis and Segment Risks

Tilson’s bearish thesis centers on the divergence between revenue growth and profitability. He argues that even with an "extremely generous" annual run rate assumption of $50 billion by year-end, applying a 10x revenue multiple—a valuation he deems equally generous—would place SpaceX’s fair value at $500 billion. With a current market capitalization of nearly $1.5 trillion, he calculates the stock is overvalued by roughly three times, or approximately $1 trillion.

A critical component of this valuation gap is the performance of xAI, SpaceX’s artificial intelligence venture. Tilson characterized xAI as a "terrible business" that is dragging down the profitable Starlink and space operations. He noted that xAI is burning "huge amounts of cash" in an attempt to compete with larger rivals, contributing significantly to the negative free cash flow position.

What the Numbers Show

The primary risk highlighted in Tilson’s analysis is the structural mismatch between SpaceX’s massive capital expenditures and its operating cash flow. While top-line growth is robust, the negative $25 billion free cash flow for the first half of 2026 indicates that the company is consuming more capital than it generates from operations. This dynamic suggests that sustained high growth relies heavily on continued external financing or equity dilution, rather than self-funding through operations. The upcoming share unlock exacerbates this concern by introducing potential supply shock into the market just as investors digest these cash flow realities.