SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares surged roughly 13% on Friday after Argus Research upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, citing rapid returns on the company’s massive artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. The analyst firm set a $160 price target, emphasizing that investors are increasingly focused on the speed of capital recovery rather than the sheer scale of spending. This market shift comes just two days after SpaceX reported its first earnings as a public company, where heavy capital expenditures initially weighed on investor sentiment.

The core of Argus’s bullish thesis aligns with comments from CFO Bret Johnsen during Tuesday’s earnings call, where he disclosed that the company is achieving "less than a one-year payback" on its AI compute spending. This efficiency metric has helped reframe the narrative around SpaceX’s aggressive investment strategy. While the company reported approximately $18.4 billion in second-quarter capital expenditures—with about $15.8 billion allocated specifically to AI infrastructure—the quick monetization of these assets has alleviated concerns regarding cash burn and long-term profitability.

Financial Performance and Contract Wins

SpaceX’s financial results for the second quarter underscore a significant pivot toward AI-driven revenue streams. The company reported total revenue of $7.8 billion for the quarter. A major component of this growth was the signing of $14.1 billion in new cloud contracts during the second quarter alone. Additionally, Johnsen noted that the company secured another $6.7 billion in contracts in the opening weeks of the third quarter, indicating sustained demand for its computing capabilities.

The AI segment itself saw explosive growth, with revenue jumping 247% year-over-year to approximately $2.6 billion. This growth was driven primarily by new cloud agreements rather than SpaceX’s own Grok models. Despite the revenue surge, the AI segment posted an operating loss of roughly $1.3 billion. However, adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time, marking a critical milestone in the segment’s path to profitability.

Market Dynamics and Share Unlock

The stock’s resilience was further tested by liquidity events unrelated to operational performance. Approximately 911.5 million previously locked-up shares became eligible for sale recently, raising fears of supply-side pressure. However, the stock rose on Thursday despite this unlock, with more than 255 million shares changing hands, according to Bloomberg data. This trading volume suggests that institutional demand is absorbing the increased supply, reinforcing confidence in the company’s valuation.

What the Numbers Show

An analytical review of the disclosed figures reveals a strategic dependency on external AI labs rather than proprietary model dominance. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign Elon Musk’s xAI only a 3% chance of having the best AI model by year-end, with Anthropic leading at 68%, followed by OpenAI at 13% and Google at 8%. Notably, SpaceX’s disclosed compute customers include both Google and Anthropic. This indicates that while SpaceX may not lead in model creation, it is positioning itself as the essential infrastructure provider for the industry’s top performers, effectively monetizing the broader AI race regardless of which specific model achieves supremacy.

BlackRock Inc. disclosed a holding of 51 million Class A common shares in SpaceX as of June 30, 2026, according to a regulatory filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The data, contained in the asset manager’s quarterly Form 13F-HR submission, provides insight into the institutional ownership structure of the private aerospace company.

Filing Details

The information was released via BlackRock’s electronic submission to the SEC database. The filing specifically identifies the security class as Class A common stock and sets the record date for the holdings at June 30, 2026.

What the Numbers Show

The disclosure confirms significant institutional participation in SpaceX’s equity structure. With 51 million shares reported, BlackRock remains a key holder in the private market vehicle associated with the aerospace firm. This filing serves as a transparent snapshot of institutional exposure to SpaceX’s capital base at the mid-year mark of FY26.