Dollar Holds Steady as Mixed US Economic Data Sets Stage for Friday's Jobs Report
The US dollar remained stable Thursday as mixed economic data created uncertainty ahead of Friday's key jobs report. Labour market indicators showed a 'no hire, no fire' environment with falling job openings, while services sector activity unexpectedly strengthened in December. Major currencies showed minimal movement, with markets pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year despite the central bank signaling just one more cut for 2026. Geopolitical tensions and potential Supreme Court tariff decisions add market complexity.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
The US dollar maintained a steady position on Thursday as investors carefully evaluated mixed economic signals ahead of Friday's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report. Rising geopolitical tensions continued to influence market sentiment, keeping major currency movements subdued across trading sessions.
Currency Market Performance
Major currency pairs demonstrated minimal volatility during early Asian trading hours. The following table shows key exchange rates:
| Currency Pair: | Current Rate | Weekly Trend |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD: | $1.1678 | Small weekly drop |
| GBP/USD: | $1.34605 | Steady |
| USD/JPY: | 156.78 | Flat |
| AUD/USD: | $0.6721 | Near 15-month high |
| NZD/USD: | $0.5769 | Little changed |
The dollar index, measuring the US currency against six major rivals, remained steady at 98.737 and appeared set for a modest weekly gain.
Mixed Economic Indicators Paint Complex Picture
Thursday's economic data presented contrasting signals about the US economy's health. Labour market indicators showed concerning trends, with job openings falling more than expected in November while hiring activity continued to ease. Analysts described this environment as a "no hire, no fire" state, suggesting employers remain cautious about both recruitment and layoffs.
However, services sector activity provided a positive counterpoint, unexpectedly picking up in December. This improvement suggested the economy concluded 2025 on solid footing, creating a mixed narrative for policymakers and investors.
"The latest U.S. data releases paint a mixed picture of the economy," said Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst at MUFG. "For the Fed, this mix of signals could reinforce a cautious approach."
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations
Market participants are currently pricing in at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, despite the central bank indicating in December just one additional cut for 2026. The mixed economic signals have created uncertainty about the Fed's policy trajectory, with most markets expecting the central bank to maintain current rates in January.
| Fed Policy Outlook: | Market Expectation |
|---|---|
| Rate Cuts 2026: | At least two cuts priced in |
| Fed December Signal: | One more cut indicated |
| January Meeting: | Expected to stand pat |
Matthias Scheiber, senior portfolio manager and head of the multi-asset team at Allspring Global Investments, suggested fewer rate cuts may materialise than currently expected. "We might not see as many Fed rate cuts as expected in 2026, mainly because the country's robust growth does not justify aggressive cutting," Scheiber explained.
Geopolitical Factors and Market Outlook
Despite ongoing geopolitical concerns, including US intervention in Venezuela and rising tensions between China and Japan, currency markets have remained relatively calm throughout the week. However, attention is turning to potential Supreme Court decisions regarding tariff policies.
Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, highlighted the importance of possible Supreme Court rulings on tariff policies. "If there is a decision that the tariffs are constitutional, this takes the demand for refunds off the table. This would be USD positive," Newnaha noted.
The dollar is recovering from its worst annual performance since 2017, with analysts predicting another year of decline, though expecting a more modest drop compared to recent performance. Market focus remains firmly fixed on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide crucial direction for both currency markets and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Historical Stock Returns for Dollar Industries
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.63% | -5.38% | -13.11% | -20.85% | -29.29% | +37.89% |




































